Matchday 13 · Premier League 2015-16 · November 21, 2015
Everton 4–0 Aston Villa: who deserved to win?
Everton beat Aston Villa 4–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Everton win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Everton made the better chances: 2.3 expected goals to 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Everton | 4 | 2.32 |
 Aston Villa | 0 | 1.10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +12 Everton about even · −12 Aston Villa
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Everton win 8, 1 ends level, Aston Villa win 1.
- 1 EVE 3 AVL 2
- 2 EVE 2 AVL 1
- 3 EVE 3 AVL 1
- 4 EVE 3 AVL 1
- 5 EVE 3 AVL 0
- 6 EVE 4 AVL 1
- 7 EVE 4 AVL 0
- 8 EVE 7 AVL 1
- 9 EVE 0 AVL 0
- 10 EVE 1 AVL 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Everton win 82%, 12% end level, Aston Villa win 6%. The line is what actually happened: Everton by 4.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Everton by 3+ | 43.4% |
| Everton by 2 | 20.8% |
| Everton by 1 | 17.6% |
| Draw | 12.0% |
| Aston Villa by 1 | 4.6% |
| Aston Villa by 2 | 1.4% |
| Aston Villa by 3+ | 0.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Everton | 16 | 4 | 2.32 | +1.68 |
 Aston Villa | 11 | 0 | 1.10 | −1.10 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 16' | Ross Barkley scored from a shot | 0.56 |
| 27' | Romelu Lukaku Menama scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 41' | Ross Barkley scored from a shot | 0.32 |
| 48' | Jordan Veretout didn’t score from a shot | 0.63 |
| 58' | Romelu Lukaku Menama scored from a shot | 0.28 |
| 76' | Brendan Joel Zibusiso Galloway didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
When it happened
Everton’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16' | Gerard Deulofeu Lázaro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% AVL |
| 2 | 16' | Ross Barkley scored from a shotFinishing · 56% chance | +10% EVE |
| 3 | 25' | Arouna Koné didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +2% AVL |
| 4 | 27' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +1% AVL |
| 5 | 27' | Romelu Lukaku Menama scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +11% EVE |
| 6 | 41' | Arouna Koné didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +1% AVL |
| 7 | 41' | Ross Barkley scored from a shotFinishing · 32% chance | +2% EVE |
| 8 | 48' | Jordan Veretout didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 63% chance | +2% EVE |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Everton 87% · draw 10% · Aston Villa 3%
- Final margin
- Everton by 4
- Luck in goals
- 2.1 for Everton
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Everton by 1.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Everton 82% · draw 12% · Aston Villa 6% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Everton win 88% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 13, 2015-16
- Swansea 2–2 Bournemouth Nov 21, 2015 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Chelsea 1–0 Norwich Nov 21, 2015 · replay 85% for Chelsea
- Watford 1–2 Man United Nov 21, 2015 · replay 49% for Man United
- Newcastle 0–3 Leicester Nov 21, 2015 · replay 97% for Leicester
- Man City 1–4 Liverpool Nov 21, 2015 · replay 97% for Liverpool
- West Brom 2–1 Arsenal Nov 21, 2015 · replay 24% for West Brom
- Southampton 0–1 Stoke Nov 21, 2015 · replay 66% for Stoke
- Tottenham 4–1 West Ham Nov 22, 2015 · replay 93% for Tottenham
- Crystal Palace 0–1 Sunderland Nov 23, 2015 · replay 74% for Sunderland