Matchday 13 · Premier League 2015-16 · November 22, 2015
Tottenham 4–1 West Ham: who deserved to win?
Tottenham beat West Ham 4–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Tottenham win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Tottenham made the better chances: 2.7 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Tottenham Hotspur | 4 | 2.66 |
 West Ham United | 1 | 0.75 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +7 Tottenham about even · −7 West Ham
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Tottenham win 9, 1 ends level, West Ham win 0.
- 1 TOT 4 WHU 3
- 2 TOT 2 WHU 0
- 3 TOT 3 WHU 1
- 4 TOT 2 WHU 0
- 5 TOT 3 WHU 0
- 6 TOT 4 WHU 0
- 7 TOT 5 WHU 1
- 8 TOT 6 WHU 1
- 9 TOT 6 WHU 0
- 10 TOT 2 WHU 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Tottenham win 90%, 7% end level, West Ham win 3%. The line is what actually happened: Tottenham by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Tottenham by 3+ | 56.5% |
| Tottenham by 2 | 19.3% |
| Tottenham by 1 | 14.3% |
| Draw | 6.7% |
| West Ham by 1 | 2.3% |
| West Ham by 2 | 0.8% |
| West Ham by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tottenham | 22 | 4 | 2.66 | +1.34 |
 West Ham | 10 | 1 | 0.75 | +0.25 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 22' | Harry Kane scored from a shot | 0.48 |
| 32' | Toby Alderweireld scored from a shot | 0.44 |
| 38' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shot | 0.41 |
| 49' | Harry Kane scored from a shot | 0.03 |
| 83' | Kyle Walker scored from a shot | 0.15 |
| 86' | Manuel Lanzini scored from a shot | 0.16 |
When it happened
Tottenham’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22' | Bamidele Alli didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% WHU |
| 2 | 22' | Harry Kane scored from a shotFinishing · 48% chance | +13% TOT |
| 3 | 24' | Mark Noble didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% TOT |
| 4 | 24' | Cheikhou Kouyaté didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +7% TOT |
| 5 | 24' | Andy Carroll didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% TOT |
| 6 | 32' | Toby Alderweireld scored from a shotFinishing · 44% chance | +7% TOT |
| 7 | 38' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 41% chance | +1% WHU |
| 8 | 49' | Harry Kane scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +2% TOT |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Tottenham 94% · draw 5% · West Ham 1%
- Final margin
- Tottenham by 3
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for Tottenham
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Tottenham by 2.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Tottenham 90% · draw 7% · West Ham 3% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Tottenham win 93% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 13, 2015-16
- Swansea 2–2 Bournemouth Nov 21, 2015 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Chelsea 1–0 Norwich Nov 21, 2015 · replay 85% for Chelsea
- Watford 1–2 Man United Nov 21, 2015 · replay 49% for Man United
- Newcastle 0–3 Leicester Nov 21, 2015 · replay 97% for Leicester
- Man City 1–4 Liverpool Nov 21, 2015 · replay 97% for Liverpool
- Everton 4–0 Aston Villa Nov 21, 2015 · replay 88% for Everton
- West Brom 2–1 Arsenal Nov 21, 2015 · replay 24% for West Brom
- Southampton 0–1 Stoke Nov 21, 2015 · replay 66% for Stoke
- Crystal Palace 0–1 Sunderland Nov 23, 2015 · replay 74% for Sunderland