Matchday 13 · Premier League 2015-16 · November 23, 2015
Crystal Palace 0–1 Sunderland: who deserved to win?
Sunderland beat Crystal Palace 1–0, and the replays lean Sunderland’s way: 7 wins in 10, 1 for Crystal Palace, 2 end level. Sunderland made the better chances: 1.7 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Crystal Palace | 0 | 0.69 |
 Sunderland | 1 | 1.67 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +26 Sunderland lucky · −26 Crystal Palace
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Crystal Palace win 1, 2 end level, Sunderland win 7.
- 1 CRY 2 SUN 1
- 2 CRY 1 SUN 1
- 3 CRY 2 SUN 2
- 4 CRY 0 SUN 4
- 5 CRY 0 SUN 3
- 6 CRY 1 SUN 3
- 7 CRY 2 SUN 4
- 8 CRY 0 SUN 1
- 9 CRY 0 SUN 1
- 10 CRY 1 SUN 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Crystal Palace win 14%, 23% end level, Sunderland win 63%. The line is what actually happened: Sunderland by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Crystal Palace by 3+ | 0.9% |
| Crystal Palace by 2 | 3.5% |
| Crystal Palace by 1 | 10.2% |
| Draw | 22.9% |
| Sunderland by 1 | 26.9% |
| Sunderland by 2 | 19.2% |
| Sunderland by 3+ | 16.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Crystal Palace | 20 | 0 | 0.69 | −0.69 |
 Sunderland | 12 | 1 | 1.67 | −0.67 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 79' | Jermain Defoe scored from a shot | 0.98 |
When it happened
Crystal Palace’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1' | Steven Fletcher didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% CRY |
| 2 | 49' | Sebastián Coates Nión didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% CRY |
| 3 | 63' | Connor Wickham didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% SUN |
| 4 | 64' | Connor Wickham didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% SUN |
| 5 | 73' | Billy Jones didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +6% CRY |
| 6 | 73' | Jeremain Lens didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +6% CRY |
| 7 | 88' | James McArthur didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% SUN |
| 8 | 95' | Yohan Cabaye didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 5% chance | +2% SUN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Crystal Palace 10% · draw 22% · Sunderland 68%
- Final margin
- Sunderland by 1
- Luck in goals
- none
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sunderland by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Crystal Palace 14% · draw 23% · Sunderland 63% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Sunderland win 74% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 13 matches, 2015-16 · Crystal Palace · Sunderland
More from matchday 13, 2015-16
- Swansea 2–2 Bournemouth Nov 21, 2015 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Chelsea 1–0 Norwich Nov 21, 2015 · replay 85% for Chelsea
- Watford 1–2 Man United Nov 21, 2015 · replay 49% for Man United
- Newcastle 0–3 Leicester Nov 21, 2015 · replay 97% for Leicester
- Man City 1–4 Liverpool Nov 21, 2015 · replay 97% for Liverpool
- Everton 4–0 Aston Villa Nov 21, 2015 · replay 88% for Everton
- West Brom 2–1 Arsenal Nov 21, 2015 · replay 24% for West Brom
- Southampton 0–1 Stoke Nov 21, 2015 · replay 66% for Stoke
- Tottenham 4–1 West Ham Nov 22, 2015 · replay 93% for Tottenham