Matchday 13 · Premier League 2015-16 · November 21, 2015
Chelsea 1–0 Norwich: who deserved to win?
Chelsea beat Norwich 1–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Chelsea win 8 of 10, 2 end level. Chelsea made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 0.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Chelsea | 1 | 1.82 |
 Norwich City | 0 | 0.31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +15 Chelsea about even · −15 Norwich
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Chelsea win 8, 2 end level, Norwich win 0.
- 1 CHE 2 NOR 1
- 2 CHE 1 NOR 0
- 3 CHE 1 NOR 0
- 4 CHE 2 NOR 0
- 5 CHE 4 NOR 2
- 6 CHE 2 NOR 0
- 7 CHE 3 NOR 0
- 8 CHE 4 NOR 0
- 9 CHE 1 NOR 1
- 10 CHE 2 NOR 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Chelsea win 76%, 19% end level, Norwich win 5%. The line is what actually happened: Chelsea by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Chelsea by 3+ | 25.8% |
| Chelsea by 2 | 24.2% |
| Chelsea by 1 | 25.8% |
| Draw | 19.1% |
| Norwich by 1 | 4.3% |
| Norwich by 2 | 0.7% |
| Norwich by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chelsea | 21 | 1 | 1.82 | −0.82 |
 Norwich | 4 | 0 | 0.31 | −0.31 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 63' | Diego da Silva Costa scored from a shot | 0.18 |
When it happened
Chelsea’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Francesc Fàbregas i Soler didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +4% NOR |
| 2 | 19' | Dieumerci Mbokani Bezua didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% CHE |
| 3 | 25' | Diego da Silva Costa didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +4% NOR |
| 4 | 41' | Sébastien Aymar Bassong Nguena didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +6% CHE |
| 5 | 42' | Diego da Silva Costa didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +5% NOR |
| 6 | 49' | Kurt Happy Zouma didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% NOR |
| 7 | 63' | Diego da Silva Costa scored from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +28% CHE |
| 8 | 66' | Kurt Happy Zouma didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +3% NOR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Chelsea 77% · draw 18% · Norwich 5%
- Final margin
- Chelsea by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Norwich
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Chelsea by 1.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Chelsea 76% · draw 19% · Norwich 5% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Chelsea win 85% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 13 matches, 2015-16 · Chelsea · Norwich
More from matchday 13, 2015-16
- Swansea 2–2 Bournemouth Nov 21, 2015 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Watford 1–2 Man United Nov 21, 2015 · replay 49% for Man United
- Newcastle 0–3 Leicester Nov 21, 2015 · replay 97% for Leicester
- Man City 1–4 Liverpool Nov 21, 2015 · replay 97% for Liverpool
- Everton 4–0 Aston Villa Nov 21, 2015 · replay 88% for Everton
- West Brom 2–1 Arsenal Nov 21, 2015 · replay 24% for West Brom
- Southampton 0–1 Stoke Nov 21, 2015 · replay 66% for Stoke
- Tottenham 4–1 West Ham Nov 22, 2015 · replay 93% for Tottenham
- Crystal Palace 0–1 Sunderland Nov 23, 2015 · replay 74% for Sunderland