Matchday 13 · Premier League 2015-16 · November 21, 2015
Watford 1–2 Man United: who deserved to win?
Man United beat Watford 2–1, but the replays call it even: Man United win 3 of 10, Watford 4, 3 end level. Watford made the better chances: 1.7 expected goals to 1.2. An own goal helped Man United.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Watford | 1 | 1.66 |
 Manchester United | 2 | 1.17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +51 Man United lucky · −51 Watford
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Watford win 4, 3 end level, Man United win 3.
- 1 WAT 2 MUN 1
- 2 WAT 1 MUN 0
- 3 WAT 2 MUN 0
- 4 WAT 3 MUN 0
- 5 WAT 2 MUN 2
- 6 WAT 1 MUN 1
- 7 WAT 2 MUN 2
- 8 WAT 0 MUN 2
- 9 WAT 0 MUN 1
- 10 WAT 0 MUN 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Watford win 38%, 26% end level, Man United win 36%. The line is what actually happened: Man United by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Watford by 3+ | 6.2% |
| Watford by 2 | 12.5% |
| Watford by 1 | 19.7% |
| Draw | 25.5% |
| Man United by 1 | 20.1% |
| Man United by 2 | 10.1% |
| Man United by 3+ | 6.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Watford | 10 (1 pen) | 1 | 1.66 | −0.66 |
 Man United | 13 | 1 | 1.17 | −0.17 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 10' | Memphis Depay scored from a shot | 0.20 |
| 86' | Troy Deeney scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Watford’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10' | Memphis Depay scored from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +21% MUN |
| 2 | 58' | Odion Jude Ighalo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +10% MUN |
| 3 | 69' | Etienne Capoue didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +5% MUN |
| 4 | 74' | Troy Deeney didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +5% MUN |
| 5 | 86' | Troy Deeney scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +10% WAT |
| 6 | 89' | Chris Smalling didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% WAT |
| 7 | 89' | Bastian Schweinsteiger didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +6% WAT |
| 8 | 89' | The game turned hereOwn goal by nan, for Man UnitedOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +47% MUN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Watford 51% · draw 27% · Man United 23%
- Final margin
- Man United by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.3 for Man United
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Watford by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Watford 38% · draw 26% · Man United 36% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Man United win 49% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 13 matches, 2015-16 · Watford · Man United
More from matchday 13, 2015-16
- Swansea 2–2 Bournemouth Nov 21, 2015 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Chelsea 1–0 Norwich Nov 21, 2015 · replay 85% for Chelsea
- Newcastle 0–3 Leicester Nov 21, 2015 · replay 97% for Leicester
- Man City 1–4 Liverpool Nov 21, 2015 · replay 97% for Liverpool
- Everton 4–0 Aston Villa Nov 21, 2015 · replay 88% for Everton
- West Brom 2–1 Arsenal Nov 21, 2015 · replay 24% for West Brom
- Southampton 0–1 Stoke Nov 21, 2015 · replay 66% for Stoke
- Tottenham 4–1 West Ham Nov 22, 2015 · replay 93% for Tottenham
- Crystal Palace 0–1 Sunderland Nov 23, 2015 · replay 74% for Sunderland