Matchday 13 · Premier League 2015-16 · November 21, 2015
Southampton 0–1 Stoke: who deserved to win?
Stoke beat Southampton 1–0, and the replays lean Stoke’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Southampton, 2 end level. Stoke made the better chances: 1.4 expected goals to 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Southampton | 0 | 1.15 |
 Stoke City | 1 | 1.41 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +34 Stoke lucky · −34 Southampton
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Southampton win 2, 2 end level, Stoke win 6.
- 1 SOU 1 STK 0
- 2 SOU 2 STK 0
- 3 SOU 1 STK 1
- 4 SOU 1 STK 1
- 5 SOU 0 STK 4
- 6 SOU 0 STK 3
- 7 SOU 0 STK 2
- 8 SOU 2 STK 4
- 9 SOU 2 STK 3
- 10 SOU 1 STK 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Southampton win 22%, 23% end level, Stoke win 55%. The line is what actually happened: Stoke by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Southampton by 3+ | 2.5% |
| Southampton by 2 | 5.6% |
| Southampton by 1 | 13.8% |
| Draw | 23.4% |
| Stoke by 1 | 24.2% |
| Stoke by 2 | 18.0% |
| Stoke by 3+ | 12.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Southampton | 16 | 0 | 1.15 | −1.15 |
 Stoke | 16 | 1 | 1.41 | −0.41 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 9' | Bojan Krkíc Pérez scored from a shot | 0.37 |
When it happened
Southampton’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Bojan Krkíc Pérez scored from a shotFinishing · 37% chance | +16% STK |
| 2 | 16' | Xherdan Shaqiri didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +4% SOU |
| 3 | 34' | Victor Wanyama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +6% STK |
| 4 | 36' | Dušan Tadić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% STK |
| 5 | 51' | Dušan Tadić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% STK |
| 6 | 53' | Graziano Pellè didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +5% STK |
| 7 | 81' | Shane Long didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% STK |
| 8 | 87' | Graziano Pellè didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% STK |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Southampton 29% · draw 25% · Stoke 46%
- Final margin
- Stoke by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for Stoke
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Stoke by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Southampton 22% · draw 23% · Stoke 55% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Stoke win 66% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 13 matches, 2015-16 · Southampton · Stoke
More from matchday 13, 2015-16
- Swansea 2–2 Bournemouth Nov 21, 2015 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Chelsea 1–0 Norwich Nov 21, 2015 · replay 85% for Chelsea
- Watford 1–2 Man United Nov 21, 2015 · replay 49% for Man United
- Newcastle 0–3 Leicester Nov 21, 2015 · replay 97% for Leicester
- Man City 1–4 Liverpool Nov 21, 2015 · replay 97% for Liverpool
- Everton 4–0 Aston Villa Nov 21, 2015 · replay 88% for Everton
- West Brom 2–1 Arsenal Nov 21, 2015 · replay 24% for West Brom
- Tottenham 4–1 West Ham Nov 22, 2015 · replay 93% for Tottenham
- Crystal Palace 0–1 Sunderland Nov 23, 2015 · replay 74% for Sunderland