Matchday 14 · Premier League 2015-16 · November 29, 2015
Norwich 1–1 Arsenal: who deserved to win?
Norwich and Arsenal drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Norwich win 2 of 10, Arsenal 5, and 3 end level. Arsenal made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Norwich City | 1 | 1.07 |
 Arsenal | 1 | 1.56 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +14 Norwich about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Norwich win 2, 3 end level, Arsenal win 5.
- 1 NOR 2 ARS 1
- 2 NOR 2 ARS 0
- 3 NOR 1 ARS 1
- 4 NOR 0 ARS 0
- 5 NOR 1 ARS 1
- 6 NOR 2 ARS 5
- 7 NOR 1 ARS 3
- 8 NOR 2 ARS 4
- 9 NOR 1 ARS 2
- 10 NOR 0 ARS 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Norwich win 24%, 25% end level, Arsenal win 51%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Norwich by 3+ | 2.1% |
| Norwich by 2 | 6.5% |
| Norwich by 1 | 15.2% |
| Draw | 25.1% |
| Arsenal by 1 | 24.3% |
| Arsenal by 2 | 15.6% |
| Arsenal by 3+ | 11.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Norwich | 7 | 1 | 1.07 | −0.07 |
 Arsenal | 12 | 1 | 1.56 | −0.56 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 16' | Mesut Özil didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
| 29' | Mesut Özil scored from a shot | 0.28 |
| 42' | Lewis Grabban scored from a shot | 0.53 |
When it happened
Norwich’s chance of winning
As low as 25% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16' | Mesut Özil didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +8% NOR |
| 2 | 18' | Olivier Giroud didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +6% NOR |
| 3 | 29' | Mesut Özil scored from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +21% ARS |
| 4 | 42' | Lewis Grabban scored from a shotFinishing · 53% chance | +15% NOR |
| 5 | 46' | Wes Hoolahan didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +8% ARS |
| 6 | 52' | Mesut Özil didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +10% NOR |
| 7 | 70' | Jonathan Howson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +5% ARS |
| 8 | 76' | Olivier Giroud didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +6% NOR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Norwich 25% · draw 28% · Arsenal 47%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Norwich
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arsenal by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Norwich 24% · draw 25% · Arsenal 51% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 14 matches, 2015-16 · Norwich · Arsenal
More from matchday 14, 2015-16
- Man City 3–1 Southampton Nov 28, 2015 · replay 72% for Man City
- Leicester 1–1 Man United Nov 28, 2015 · drawn; replay 38% draws
- Aston Villa 2–3 Watford Nov 28, 2015 · replay 58% for Watford
- Bournemouth 3–3 Everton Nov 28, 2015 · drawn; replay 30% draws
- Sunderland 2–0 Stoke Nov 28, 2015 · replay 59% for Sunderland
- Crystal Palace 5–1 Newcastle Nov 28, 2015 · replay 79% for Crystal Palace
- Liverpool 1–0 Swansea Nov 29, 2015 · replay 77% for Liverpool
- Tottenham 0–0 Chelsea Nov 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 50% draws
- West Ham 1–1 West Brom Nov 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws