Matchday 14 · Premier League 2015-16 · November 28, 2015
Crystal Palace 5–1 Newcastle: who deserved to win?
Crystal Palace beat Newcastle 5–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Crystal Palace win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Crystal Palace made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Crystal Palace | 5 | 1.59 |
 Newcastle United | 1 | 0.79 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +21 Crystal Palace about even · −21 Newcastle
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Crystal Palace win 7, 2 end level, Newcastle win 1.
- 1 CRY 2 NEW 1
- 2 CRY 2 NEW 1
- 3 CRY 4 NEW 2
- 4 CRY 2 NEW 0
- 5 CRY 3 NEW 0
- 6 CRY 3 NEW 0
- 7 CRY 5 NEW 1
- 8 CRY 1 NEW 1
- 9 CRY 2 NEW 2
- 10 CRY 0 NEW 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Crystal Palace win 71%, 17% end level, Newcastle win 12%. The line is what actually happened: Crystal Palace by 4.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Crystal Palace by 3+ | 25.3% |
| Crystal Palace by 2 | 22.0% |
| Crystal Palace by 1 | 23.4% |
| Draw | 17.4% |
| Newcastle by 1 | 8.4% |
| Newcastle by 2 | 2.8% |
| Newcastle by 3+ | 0.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Crystal Palace | 19 | 5 | 1.59 | +3.41 |
 Newcastle | 7 | 1 | 0.79 | +0.21 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 9' | Papiss Demba Cissé scored from a shot | 0.29 |
| 13' | James McArthur scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 16' | Yannick Bolasie Yala scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 40' | Wilfried Zaha scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 46' | Yannick Bolasie Yala scored from a shot | 0.45 |
| 92' | James McArthur scored from a shot | 0.06 |
When it happened
Crystal Palace’s chance of winning
As low as 32% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Papiss Demba Cissé scored from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +18% NEW |
| 2 | 10' | Papiss Demba Cissé didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +2% CRY |
| 3 | 13' | The game turned hereJames McArthur scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +24% CRY |
| 4 | 15' | James McArthur didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% NEW |
| 5 | 16' | Yannick Bolasie Yala scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +22% CRY |
| 6 | 40' | Wilfried Zaha scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +11% CRY |
| 7 | 45' | Papiss Demba Cissé didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +2% CRY |
| 8 | 46' | Yannick Bolasie Yala scored from a shotFinishing · 45% chance | +2% CRY |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Crystal Palace 83% · draw 13% · Newcastle 4%
- Final margin
- Crystal Palace by 4
- Luck in goals
- 2.4 for Crystal Palace
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Crystal Palace by 1.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Crystal Palace 71% · draw 17% · Newcastle 12% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Crystal Palace win 79% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 14 matches, 2015-16 · Crystal Palace · Newcastle
More from matchday 14, 2015-16
- Man City 3–1 Southampton Nov 28, 2015 · replay 72% for Man City
- Leicester 1–1 Man United Nov 28, 2015 · drawn; replay 38% draws
- Aston Villa 2–3 Watford Nov 28, 2015 · replay 58% for Watford
- Bournemouth 3–3 Everton Nov 28, 2015 · drawn; replay 30% draws
- Sunderland 2–0 Stoke Nov 28, 2015 · replay 59% for Sunderland
- Liverpool 1–0 Swansea Nov 29, 2015 · replay 77% for Liverpool
- Norwich 1–1 Arsenal Nov 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Tottenham 0–0 Chelsea Nov 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 50% draws
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