Matchday 14 · Premier League 2015-16 · November 28, 2015
Sunderland 2–0 Stoke: who deserved to win?
Sunderland beat Stoke 2–0, and the replays lean Sunderland’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Stoke, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (1.2 expected goals to 1.0).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sunderland | 2 | 1.21 |
 Stoke City | 0 | 0.97 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +41 Sunderland lucky · −41 Stoke
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sunderland win 5, 3 end level, Stoke win 2.
- 1 SUN 2 STK 1
- 2 SUN 2 STK 1
- 3 SUN 2 STK 1
- 4 SUN 3 STK 1
- 5 SUN 3 STK 0
- 6 SUN 1 STK 1
- 7 SUN 2 STK 2
- 8 SUN 0 STK 0
- 9 SUN 1 STK 3
- 10 SUN 2 STK 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sunderland win 45%, 28% end level, Stoke win 27%. The line is what actually happened: Sunderland by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sunderland by 3+ | 7.0% |
| Sunderland by 2 | 14.0% |
| Sunderland by 1 | 24.2% |
| Draw | 28.0% |
| Stoke by 1 | 17.5% |
| Stoke by 2 | 7.2% |
| Stoke by 3+ | 2.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sunderland | 18 | 2 | 1.21 | +0.79 |
 Stoke | 7 | 0 | 0.97 | −0.97 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 32' | Jonathan Walters didn’t score from a shot | 0.66 |
| 55' | Sebastián Coates Nión didn’t score from a shot | 0.33 |
| 81' | Patrick van Aanholt scored from a shot | 0.03 |
| 83' | Duncan Watmore scored from a shot | 0.07 |
When it happened
Sunderland’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 32' | Jonathan Walters didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 66% chance | +19% SUN |
| 2 | 54' | Yann Gérard M''Vila didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% STK |
| 3 | 55' | Sebastián Coates Nión didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +10% STK |
| 4 | 58' | Jonathan Walters didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% SUN |
| 5 | 63' | Jeremain Lens didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% STK |
| 6 | 69' | DeAndre Yedlin didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% STK |
| 7 | 81' | Patrick van Aanholt scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +42% SUN |
| 8 | 83' | Duncan Watmore scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% SUN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sunderland 71% · draw 21% · Stoke 9%
- Final margin
- Sunderland by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.3 for Sunderland
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sunderland by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Sunderland 45% · draw 28% · Stoke 27% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Sunderland win 59% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 14 matches, 2015-16 · Sunderland · Stoke
More from matchday 14, 2015-16
- Man City 3–1 Southampton Nov 28, 2015 · replay 72% for Man City
- Leicester 1–1 Man United Nov 28, 2015 · drawn; replay 38% draws
- Aston Villa 2–3 Watford Nov 28, 2015 · replay 58% for Watford
- Bournemouth 3–3 Everton Nov 28, 2015 · drawn; replay 30% draws
- Crystal Palace 5–1 Newcastle Nov 28, 2015 · replay 79% for Crystal Palace
- Liverpool 1–0 Swansea Nov 29, 2015 · replay 77% for Liverpool
- Norwich 1–1 Arsenal Nov 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Tottenham 0–0 Chelsea Nov 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 50% draws
- West Ham 1–1 West Brom Nov 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws