Matchday 14 · Premier League 2015-16 · November 28, 2015
Leicester 1–1 Man United: who deserved to win?
Leicester and Man United drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Leicester win 2 of 10, Man United 4, and 4 end level. Man United made the better chances: 0.9 expected goals to 0.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Leicester City | 1 | 0.44 |
 Manchester United | 1 | 0.88 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +11 Leicester about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Leicester win 2, 4 end level, Man United win 4.
- 1 LEI 1 MUN 0
- 2 LEI 1 MUN 0
- 3 LEI 0 MUN 0
- 4 LEI 1 MUN 1
- 5 LEI 0 MUN 0
- 6 LEI 1 MUN 1
- 7 LEI 0 MUN 2
- 8 LEI 0 MUN 2
- 9 LEI 0 MUN 1
- 10 LEI 0 MUN 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Leicester win 20%, 38% end level, Man United win 42%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Leicester by 3+ | 0.8% |
| Leicester by 2 | 3.0% |
| Leicester by 1 | 15.8% |
| Draw | 38.1% |
| Man United by 1 | 26.8% |
| Man United by 2 | 11.5% |
| Man United by 3+ | 4.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Leicester | 7 | 1 | 0.44 | +0.56 |
 Man United | 12 | 1 | 0.88 | +0.12 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 23' | Jamie Vardy scored from a shot | 0.14 |
| 45' | Bastian Schweinsteiger scored from a shot | 0.24 |
When it happened
Leicester’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21' | Bastian Schweinsteiger didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% LEI |
| 2 | 23' | Jamie Vardy scored from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +21% LEI |
| 3 | 45' | Bastian Schweinsteiger scored from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +22% MUN |
| 4 | 48' | Bastian Schweinsteiger didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% LEI |
| 5 | 65' | José Leonardo Ulloa didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +5% MUN |
| 6 | 72' | José Leonardo Ulloa didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% MUN |
| 7 | 78' | Juan Manuel Mata García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% LEI |
| 8 | 83' | Memphis Depay didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% LEI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Leicester 18% · draw 36% · Man United 47%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Leicester
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Man United by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Leicester 20% · draw 38% · Man United 42% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 14 matches, 2015-16 · Leicester · Man United
More from matchday 14, 2015-16
- Man City 3–1 Southampton Nov 28, 2015 · replay 72% for Man City
- Aston Villa 2–3 Watford Nov 28, 2015 · replay 58% for Watford
- Bournemouth 3–3 Everton Nov 28, 2015 · drawn; replay 30% draws
- Sunderland 2–0 Stoke Nov 28, 2015 · replay 59% for Sunderland
- Crystal Palace 5–1 Newcastle Nov 28, 2015 · replay 79% for Crystal Palace
- Liverpool 1–0 Swansea Nov 29, 2015 · replay 77% for Liverpool
- Norwich 1–1 Arsenal Nov 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Tottenham 0–0 Chelsea Nov 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 50% draws
- West Ham 1–1 West Brom Nov 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws