Matchday 14 · Premier League 2015-16 · November 29, 2015
Liverpool 1–0 Swansea: who deserved to win?
Liverpool beat Swansea 1–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Liverpool win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Liverpool made the better chances: 1.5 expected goals to 0.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Liverpool | 1 | 1.50 |
 Swansea City | 0 | 0.43 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +23 Liverpool about even · −23 Swansea
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Liverpool win 7, 2 end level, Swansea win 1.
- 1 LIV 1 SWA 0
- 2 LIV 1 SWA 0
- 3 LIV 1 SWA 0
- 4 LIV 2 SWA 0
- 5 LIV 2 SWA 0
- 6 LIV 3 SWA 0
- 7 LIV 5 SWA 1
- 8 LIV 0 SWA 0
- 9 LIV 2 SWA 2
- 10 LIV 0 SWA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Liverpool win 65%, 24% end level, Swansea win 11%. The line is what actually happened: Liverpool by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Liverpool by 3+ | 15.5% |
| Liverpool by 2 | 20.1% |
| Liverpool by 1 | 29.4% |
| Draw | 24.2% |
| Swansea by 1 | 8.6% |
| Swansea by 2 | 2.0% |
| Swansea by 3+ | 0.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Liverpool | 10 (1 pen) | 1 | 1.50 | −0.50 |
 Swansea | 9 | 0 | 0.43 | −0.43 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 61' | James Philip Milner scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Liverpool’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Éderzito António Macedo Lopes didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% LIV |
| 2 | 41' | Alberto Moreno Pérez didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 8% chance | +2% SWA |
| 3 | 52' | Dejan Lovren didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +8% SWA |
| 4 | 56' | Roberto Firmino Barbosa de Oliveira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% SWA |
| 5 | 60' | Roberto Firmino Barbosa de Oliveira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% SWA |
| 6 | 61' | James Philip Milner scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +7% LIV |
| 7 | 76' | Jefferson Antonio Montero Vite didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% LIV |
| 8 | 79' | Ashley Williams didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +5% LIV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Liverpool 71% · draw 22% · Swansea 8%
- Final margin
- Liverpool by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for Swansea
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Liverpool by 1.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Liverpool 65% · draw 24% · Swansea 11% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Liverpool win 77% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 14 matches, 2015-16 · Liverpool · Swansea
More from matchday 14, 2015-16
- Man City 3–1 Southampton Nov 28, 2015 · replay 72% for Man City
- Leicester 1–1 Man United Nov 28, 2015 · drawn; replay 38% draws
- Aston Villa 2–3 Watford Nov 28, 2015 · replay 58% for Watford
- Bournemouth 3–3 Everton Nov 28, 2015 · drawn; replay 30% draws
- Sunderland 2–0 Stoke Nov 28, 2015 · replay 59% for Sunderland
- Crystal Palace 5–1 Newcastle Nov 28, 2015 · replay 79% for Crystal Palace
- Norwich 1–1 Arsenal Nov 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Tottenham 0–0 Chelsea Nov 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 50% draws
- West Ham 1–1 West Brom Nov 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws