Matchday 14 · Premier League 2015-16 · November 28, 2015
Bournemouth 3–3 Everton: who deserved to win?
Bournemouth and Everton drew 3–3. Replayed with the way both teams played, Bournemouth win 4 of 10, Everton 3, and 3 end level. Bournemouth made the better chances: 1.4 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 AFC Bournemouth | 3 | 1.43 |
 Everton | 3 | 0.70 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −9 Bournemouth about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bournemouth win 4, 3 end level, Everton win 3.
- 1 BOU 1 EVE 0
- 2 BOU 1 EVE 0
- 3 BOU 2 EVE 0
- 4 BOU 4 EVE 2
- 5 BOU 1 EVE 1
- 6 BOU 0 EVE 0
- 7 BOU 0 EVE 0
- 8 BOU 0 EVE 2
- 9 BOU 1 EVE 2
- 10 BOU 0 EVE 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Bournemouth win 45%, 30% end level, Everton win 26%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bournemouth by 3+ | 5.8% |
| Bournemouth by 2 | 12.9% |
| Bournemouth by 1 | 26.0% |
| Draw | 29.5% |
| Everton by 1 | 18.1% |
| Everton by 2 | 5.9% |
| Everton by 3+ | 1.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bournemouth | 19 | 3 | 1.43 | +1.57 |
 Everton | 11 | 3 | 0.70 | +2.30 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 24' | José Ramiro Funes Mori scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 35' | Romelu Lukaku Menama scored from a shot | 0.11 |
| 79' | Adam Smith scored from a shot | 0.02 |
| 86' | Junior Stanislas scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 94' | Ross Barkley scored from a shot | 0.12 |
| 97' | Junior Stanislas scored from a shot | 0.16 |
When it happened
Bournemouth’s chance of winning
As low as 1% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24' | José Ramiro Funes Mori scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +25% EVE |
| 2 | 35' | Romelu Lukaku Menama scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +16% EVE |
| 3 | 79' | Adam Smith scored from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +7% BOU |
| 4 | 86' | Junior Stanislas scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +42% BOU |
| 5 | 91' | Glenn Murray didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% EVE |
| 6 | 91' | Charlie Daniels didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +8% EVE |
| 7 | 94' | Ross Barkley scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +44% EVE |
| 8 | 97' | Junior Stanislas scored from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +42% BOU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bournemouth 54% · draw 27% · Everton 19%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Everton
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bournemouth by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Bournemouth 45% · draw 30% · Everton 26% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 14, 2015-16
- Man City 3–1 Southampton Nov 28, 2015 · replay 72% for Man City
- Leicester 1–1 Man United Nov 28, 2015 · drawn; replay 38% draws
- Aston Villa 2–3 Watford Nov 28, 2015 · replay 58% for Watford
- Sunderland 2–0 Stoke Nov 28, 2015 · replay 59% for Sunderland
- Crystal Palace 5–1 Newcastle Nov 28, 2015 · replay 79% for Crystal Palace
- Liverpool 1–0 Swansea Nov 29, 2015 · replay 77% for Liverpool
- Norwich 1–1 Arsenal Nov 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Tottenham 0–0 Chelsea Nov 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 50% draws
- West Ham 1–1 West Brom Nov 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws