luckadjusted
Premier League Matchday 5 · 2026-27

Matchday 14 · Premier League 2015-16 · November 29, 2015

Tottenham 0–0 Chelsea: who deserved to win?

Tottenham and Chelsea drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Tottenham win 3 of 10, Chelsea 2, and 5 end level. The chances were close to even (0.5 expected goals to 0.3).

Full time

GoalsxG
Tottenham Hotspur 0 0.51
Chelsea 0 0.27

November 29, 2015 · White Hart Lane · Referee: Michael Oliver

Luck index −9 Tottenham about even for the draw

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Tottenham win 3, 5 end level, Chelsea win 2.

  1. 1 TOT 1 CHE 0
  2. 2 TOT 1 CHE 0
  3. 3 TOT 2 CHE 0
  4. 4 TOT 0 CHE 0
  5. 5 TOT 0 CHE 0
  6. 6 TOT 0 CHE 0
  7. 7 TOT 0 CHE 0
  8. 8 TOT 1 CHE 1
  9. 9 TOT 0 CHE 1
  10. 10 TOT 1 CHE 2

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Tottenham win 34%, 50% end level, Chelsea win 16%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Tottenham by 3+1.5%
Tottenham by 27.6%
Tottenham by 124.6%
Draw49.9%
Chelsea by 114.3%
Chelsea by 21.8%
Chelsea by 3+0.3%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Tottenham900.51−0.51
Chelsea500.27−0.27

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

When it happened

Tottenham’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Tottenham was ahead in it, below while Chelsea was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 19' Eden Hazard didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance +2% TOT
2 22' Pedro Eliezer Rodríguez Ledesma didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance +2% TOT
3 26' Heung-Min Son didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance +2% CHE
4 44' Harry Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance +1% CHE
5 63' Heung-Min Son didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance +5% CHE
6 66' Eden Hazard didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance +2% TOT
7 76' Pedro Eliezer Rodríguez Ledesma didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance +2% TOT
8 92' Harry Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance +2% CHE

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Tottenham 34% · draw 49% · Chelsea 17%

Final margin
even
Luck in goals
0.2 for Chelsea
Luck-adjusted margin
Tottenham by 0.2
Replay with same day's form
Tottenham 34% · draw 50% · Chelsea 16% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).

All matchday 14 matches, 2015-16 · Tottenham · Chelsea

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