Matchday 14 · Premier League 2015-16 · November 29, 2015
West Ham 1–1 West Brom: who deserved to win?
West Ham and West Brom drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, West Ham win 6 of 10, West Brom 2, and 2 end level. West Ham made the better chances: 1.7 expected goals to 0.7. An own goal helped West Brom.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 West Ham United | 1 | 1.72 |
 West Bromwich Albion | 1 | 0.72 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −24 West Ham about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. West Ham win 6, 2 end level, West Brom win 2.
- 1 WHU 1 WBA 0
- 2 WHU 1 WBA 0
- 3 WHU 1 WBA 0
- 4 WHU 3 WBA 1
- 5 WHU 3 WBA 0
- 6 WHU 5 WBA 1
- 7 WHU 1 WBA 1
- 8 WHU 1 WBA 1
- 9 WHU 1 WBA 3
- 10 WHU 0 WBA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
West Ham win 63%, 23% end level, West Brom win 14%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| West Ham by 3+ | 18.1% |
| West Ham by 2 | 19.4% |
| West Ham by 1 | 25.6% |
| Draw | 22.6% |
| West Brom by 1 | 10.2% |
| West Brom by 2 | 3.3% |
| West Brom by 3+ | 0.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 West Ham | 17 | 1 | 1.72 | −0.72 |
 West Brom | 7 | 0 | 0.72 | −0.72 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 16' | Mauro Matías Zárate scored from a free kick | 0.06 |
| 60' | José Salomón Rondón Giménez didn’t score from a shot | 0.40 |
| 63' | Diafra Sakho didn’t score from a shot | 0.40 |
When it happened
West Ham’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16' | Mauro Matías Zárate scored from a free kickFinishing · 6% chance | +22% WHU |
| 2 | 49' | Own goal by nan, for West BromOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +29% WBA |
| 3 | 60' | José Salomón Rondón Giménez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 40% chance | +15% WHU |
| 4 | 63' | Diafra Sakho didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 40% chance | +14% WBA |
| 5 | 71' | Diafra Sakho didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +8% WBA |
| 6 | 81' | Andy Carroll didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +5% WBA |
| 7 | 88' | Victor Moses didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +5% WBA |
| 8 | 90' | James McClean didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +6% WHU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
West Ham 62% · draw 25% · West Brom 13%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 1.0 for West Brom
- Luck-adjusted margin
- West Ham by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- West Ham 63% · draw 23% · West Brom 14% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 14 matches, 2015-16 · West Ham · West Brom
More from matchday 14, 2015-16
- Man City 3–1 Southampton Nov 28, 2015 · replay 72% for Man City
- Leicester 1–1 Man United Nov 28, 2015 · drawn; replay 38% draws
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- Bournemouth 3–3 Everton Nov 28, 2015 · drawn; replay 30% draws
- Sunderland 2–0 Stoke Nov 28, 2015 · replay 59% for Sunderland
- Crystal Palace 5–1 Newcastle Nov 28, 2015 · replay 79% for Crystal Palace
- Liverpool 1–0 Swansea Nov 29, 2015 · replay 77% for Liverpool
- Norwich 1–1 Arsenal Nov 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 25% draws
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