Matchday 14 · Premier League 2015-16 · November 28, 2015
Man City 3–1 Southampton: who deserved to win?
Man City beat Southampton 3–1, and the replays lean Man City’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Southampton, 2 end level. Man City made the better chances: 1.7 expected goals to 1.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Manchester City | 3 | 1.67 |
 Southampton | 1 | 1.19 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +28 Man City lucky · −28 Southampton
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Man City win 6, 2 end level, Southampton win 2.
- 1 MCI 1 SOU 0
- 2 MCI 1 SOU 0
- 3 MCI 2 SOU 0
- 4 MCI 2 SOU 0
- 5 MCI 4 SOU 1
- 6 MCI 4 SOU 0
- 7 MCI 1 SOU 1
- 8 MCI 2 SOU 2
- 9 MCI 2 SOU 4
- 10 MCI 0 SOU 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Man City win 61%, 22% end level, Southampton win 17%. The line is what actually happened: Man City by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Man City by 3+ | 18.2% |
| Man City by 2 | 19.6% |
| Man City by 1 | 23.1% |
| Draw | 22.0% |
| Southampton by 1 | 11.8% |
| Southampton by 2 | 4.1% |
| Southampton by 3+ | 1.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Man City | 16 | 3 | 1.67 | +1.33 |
 Southampton | 11 | 1 | 1.19 | −0.19 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 8' | Kevin De Bruyne scored from a shot | 0.83 |
| 19' | Fabian Delph scored from a shot | 0.03 |
| 48' | Shane Long scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 61' | Dušan Tadić didn’t score from a shot | 0.38 |
| 68' | Aleksandar Kolarov scored from a shot | 0.04 |
When it happened
Man City’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8' | Kevin De Bruyne scored from a shotFinishing · 83% chance | +4% MCI |
| 2 | 12' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +3% SOU |
| 3 | 19' | Fabian Delph scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +12% MCI |
| 4 | 26' | Victor Wanyama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +2% MCI |
| 5 | 48' | Shane Long scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +10% SOU |
| 6 | 61' | Dušan Tadić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +13% MCI |
| 7 | 61' | Shane Long didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% MCI |
| 8 | 68' | Aleksandar Kolarov scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +8% MCI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Man City 75% · draw 16% · Southampton 8%
- Final margin
- Man City by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.1 for Man City
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Man City by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Man City 61% · draw 22% · Southampton 17% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Man City win 72% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 14 matches, 2015-16 · Man City · Southampton
More from matchday 14, 2015-16
- Leicester 1–1 Man United Nov 28, 2015 · drawn; replay 38% draws
- Aston Villa 2–3 Watford Nov 28, 2015 · replay 58% for Watford
- Bournemouth 3–3 Everton Nov 28, 2015 · drawn; replay 30% draws
- Sunderland 2–0 Stoke Nov 28, 2015 · replay 59% for Sunderland
- Crystal Palace 5–1 Newcastle Nov 28, 2015 · replay 79% for Crystal Palace
- Liverpool 1–0 Swansea Nov 29, 2015 · replay 77% for Liverpool
- Norwich 1–1 Arsenal Nov 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Tottenham 0–0 Chelsea Nov 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 50% draws
- West Ham 1–1 West Brom Nov 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws