Matchday 14 · Premier League 2015-16 · November 28, 2015
Aston Villa 2–3 Watford: who deserved to win?
Watford beat Aston Villa 3–2, and the replays lean Watford’s way: 5 wins in 10, 3 for Aston Villa, 2 end level. The chances were close to even (1.9 expected goals to 1.7). An own goal helped Watford.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Aston Villa | 2 | 1.91 |
 Watford | 3 | 1.71 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +42 Watford lucky · −42 Aston Villa
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Aston Villa win 3, 2 end level, Watford win 5.
- 1 AVL 2 WAT 1
- 2 AVL 3 WAT 2
- 3 AVL 5 WAT 2
- 4 AVL 1 WAT 1
- 5 AVL 2 WAT 2
- 6 AVL 0 WAT 4
- 7 AVL 1 WAT 3
- 8 AVL 0 WAT 2
- 9 AVL 0 WAT 1
- 10 AVL 1 WAT 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Aston Villa win 32%, 21% end level, Watford win 48%. The line is what actually happened: Watford by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa by 3+ | 6.4% |
| Aston Villa by 2 | 8.8% |
| Aston Villa by 1 | 16.6% |
| Draw | 20.6% |
| Watford by 1 | 20.8% |
| Watford by 2 | 14.3% |
| Watford by 3+ | 12.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aston Villa | 14 | 2 | 1.91 | +0.09 |
 Watford | 15 | 2 | 1.71 | +0.29 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 16' | Odion Jude Ighalo didn’t score from a shot | 0.39 |
| 16' | Odion Jude Ighalo scored from a shot | 0.36 |
| 19' | Jordan Ayew didn’t score from a shot | 0.52 |
| 23' | Etienne Capoue didn’t score from a shot | 0.44 |
| 36' | Ciaran Clark didn’t score from a shot | 0.58 |
| 40' | Micah Richards scored from a shot | 0.26 |
| 84' | Troy Deeney scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 88' | Jordan Ayew scored from a shot | 0.06 |
When it happened
Aston Villa’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16' | Odion Jude Ighalo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 39% chance | +10% AVL |
| 2 | 16' | Odion Jude Ighalo scored from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +17% WAT |
| 3 | 19' | Jordan Ayew didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 52% chance | +14% WAT |
| 4 | 23' | Etienne Capoue didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 44% chance | +8% AVL |
| 5 | 36' | Ciaran Clark didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 58% chance | +18% WAT |
| 6 | 40' | Micah Richards scored from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +23% AVL |
| 7 | 68' | The game turned hereOwn goal by nan, for WatfordOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +38% WAT |
| 8 | 84' | Troy Deeney scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +4% WAT |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Aston Villa 41% · draw 25% · Watford 34%
- Final margin
- Watford by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.1 for Watford
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Aston Villa by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Aston Villa 32% · draw 21% · Watford 48% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Watford win 58% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 14 matches, 2015-16 · Aston Villa · Watford
More from matchday 14, 2015-16
- Man City 3–1 Southampton Nov 28, 2015 · replay 72% for Man City
- Leicester 1–1 Man United Nov 28, 2015 · drawn; replay 38% draws
- Bournemouth 3–3 Everton Nov 28, 2015 · drawn; replay 30% draws
- Sunderland 2–0 Stoke Nov 28, 2015 · replay 59% for Sunderland
- Crystal Palace 5–1 Newcastle Nov 28, 2015 · replay 79% for Crystal Palace
- Liverpool 1–0 Swansea Nov 29, 2015 · replay 77% for Liverpool
- Norwich 1–1 Arsenal Nov 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Tottenham 0–0 Chelsea Nov 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 50% draws
- West Ham 1–1 West Brom Nov 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws