Matchday 15 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 5, 2015
Swansea 0–3 Leicester: who deserved to win?
Leicester beat Swansea 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Leicester win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Leicester made the better chances: 2.5 expected goals to 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Swansea City | 0 | 1.05 |
 Leicester City | 3 | 2.55 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +9 Leicester about even · −9 Swansea
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Swansea win 0, 1 ends level, Leicester win 9.
- 1 SWA 2 LEI 2
- 2 SWA 0 LEI 6
- 3 SWA 0 LEI 5
- 4 SWA 0 LEI 4
- 5 SWA 1 LEI 4
- 6 SWA 0 LEI 3
- 7 SWA 0 LEI 2
- 8 SWA 0 LEI 2
- 9 SWA 1 LEI 2
- 10 SWA 2 LEI 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Swansea win 4%, 9% end level, Leicester win 87%. The line is what actually happened: Leicester by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Swansea by 3+ | 0.2% |
| Swansea by 2 | 0.9% |
| Swansea by 1 | 3.1% |
| Draw | 8.9% |
| Leicester by 1 | 14.7% |
| Leicester by 2 | 19.2% |
| Leicester by 3+ | 53.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Swansea | 10 | 0 | 1.05 | −1.05 |
 Leicester | 16 | 3 | 2.55 | +0.45 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 4' | Riyad Mahrez scored from a shot | 0.27 |
| 14' | Jamie Vardy didn’t score from a shot | 0.42 |
| 21' | Riyad Mahrez scored from a shot | 0.32 |
| 66' | Riyad Mahrez scored from a shot | 0.28 |
| 73' | Jamie Vardy didn’t score from a shot | 0.35 |
| 75' | Bafétimbi Gomis didn’t score from a shot | 0.37 |
When it happened
Swansea’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Riyad Mahrez scored from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +18% LEI |
| 2 | 14' | Jamie Vardy didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 42% chance | +8% SWA |
| 3 | 21' | Riyad Mahrez scored from a shotFinishing · 32% chance | +12% LEI |
| 4 | 24' | Riyad Mahrez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +2% SWA |
| 5 | 38' | José Leonardo Ulloa didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +1% SWA |
| 6 | 45' | Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% LEI |
| 7 | 46' | Sung-Yeung Ki didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% LEI |
| 8 | 66' | Riyad Mahrez scored from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +2% LEI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Swansea 3% · draw 7% · Leicester 90%
- Final margin
- Leicester by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.1 for Leicester
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Leicester by 1.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Swansea 4% · draw 9% · Leicester 87% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Leicester win 91% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 15 matches, 2015-16 · Swansea · Leicester
More from matchday 15, 2015-16
- Arsenal 3–1 Sunderland Dec 5, 2015 · replay 77% for Arsenal
- Stoke 2–0 Man City Dec 5, 2015 · replay 85% for Stoke
- Man United 0–0 West Ham Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Chelsea 0–1 Bournemouth Dec 5, 2015 · replay 60% for Bournemouth
- Southampton 1–1 Aston Villa Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 14% draws
- Watford 2–0 Norwich Dec 5, 2015 · replay 88% for Watford
- West Brom 1–1 Tottenham Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 33% draws
- Newcastle 2–0 Liverpool Dec 6, 2015 · replay 49% for Newcastle
- Everton 1–1 Crystal Palace Dec 7, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws