Matchday 15 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 5, 2015
Chelsea 0–1 Bournemouth: who deserved to win?
Bournemouth beat Chelsea 1–0, and the replays lean Bournemouth’s way: 5 wins in 10, 3 for Chelsea, 2 end level. Bournemouth made the better chances: 1.7 expected goals to 1.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Chelsea | 0 | 1.34 |
 AFC Bournemouth | 1 | 1.71 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +40 Bournemouth lucky · −40 Chelsea
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Chelsea win 3, 2 end level, Bournemouth win 5.
- 1 CHE 1 BOU 0
- 2 CHE 1 BOU 0
- 3 CHE 3 BOU 1
- 4 CHE 2 BOU 2
- 5 CHE 1 BOU 1
- 6 CHE 0 BOU 4
- 7 CHE 0 BOU 2
- 8 CHE 1 BOU 3
- 9 CHE 1 BOU 2
- 10 CHE 1 BOU 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Chelsea win 28%, 23% end level, Bournemouth win 49%. The line is what actually happened: Bournemouth by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Chelsea by 3+ | 4.4% |
| Chelsea by 2 | 8.3% |
| Chelsea by 1 | 15.5% |
| Draw | 23.1% |
| Bournemouth by 1 | 21.7% |
| Bournemouth by 2 | 14.9% |
| Bournemouth by 3+ | 12.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chelsea | 19 | 0 | 1.34 | −1.34 |
 Bournemouth | 15 | 1 | 1.71 | −0.71 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 81' | Glenn Murray scored from a shot | 0.70 |
When it happened
Chelsea’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11' | Junior Stanislas didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% CHE |
| 2 | 11' | Joshua King didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% CHE |
| 3 | 14' | Joshua King didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% CHE |
| 4 | 53' | Nemanja Matić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +9% BOU |
| 5 | 76' | Diego da Silva Costa didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% BOU |
| 6 | 81' | Steve Cook didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% CHE |
| 7 | 81' | Glenn Murray scored from a shotFinishing · 70% chance | +14% BOU |
| 8 | 93' | Loïc Rémy didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +6% BOU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Chelsea 27% · draw 25% · Bournemouth 48%
- Final margin
- Bournemouth by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Bournemouth
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bournemouth by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Chelsea 28% · draw 23% · Bournemouth 49% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Bournemouth win 60% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 15, 2015-16
- Arsenal 3–1 Sunderland Dec 5, 2015 · replay 77% for Arsenal
- Stoke 2–0 Man City Dec 5, 2015 · replay 85% for Stoke
- Man United 0–0 West Ham Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Swansea 0–3 Leicester Dec 5, 2015 · replay 91% for Leicester
- Southampton 1–1 Aston Villa Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 14% draws
- Watford 2–0 Norwich Dec 5, 2015 · replay 88% for Watford
- West Brom 1–1 Tottenham Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 33% draws
- Newcastle 2–0 Liverpool Dec 6, 2015 · replay 49% for Newcastle
- Everton 1–1 Crystal Palace Dec 7, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws