Matchday 15 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 6, 2015
Newcastle 2–0 Liverpool: who deserved to win?
Newcastle beat Liverpool 2–0, but the replays call it even: Newcastle win 3 of 10, Liverpool 4, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (0.9 expected goals to 1.1). An own goal helped Newcastle.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Newcastle United | 2 | 0.89 |
 Liverpool | 0 | 1.12 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +51 Newcastle lucky · −51 Liverpool
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Newcastle win 3, 3 end level, Liverpool win 4.
- 1 NEW 1 LIV 0
- 2 NEW 1 LIV 0
- 3 NEW 3 LIV 1
- 4 NEW 0 LIV 0
- 5 NEW 1 LIV 1
- 6 NEW 1 LIV 1
- 7 NEW 0 LIV 2
- 8 NEW 0 LIV 2
- 9 NEW 0 LIV 1
- 10 NEW 2 LIV 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Newcastle win 34%, 30% end level, Liverpool win 36%. The line is what actually happened: Newcastle by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Newcastle by 3+ | 3.9% |
| Newcastle by 2 | 9.5% |
| Newcastle by 1 | 20.8% |
| Draw | 30.3% |
| Liverpool by 1 | 22.2% |
| Liverpool by 2 | 9.8% |
| Liverpool by 3+ | 3.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Newcastle | 6 | 1 | 0.89 | +0.11 |
 Liverpool | 10 | 0 | 1.12 | −1.12 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 20' | Christian Benteke Liolo didn’t score from a shot | 0.58 |
| 92' | Georginio Wijnaldum scored from a shot | 0.48 |
When it happened
Newcastle’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20' | Christian Benteke Liolo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 58% chance | +16% NEW |
| 2 | 43' | Chancel Mbemba Mangulu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +5% LIV |
| 3 | 50' | Georginio Wijnaldum didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% LIV |
| 4 | 68' | Georginio Wijnaldum didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% LIV |
| 5 | 68' | Own goal by nan, for NewcastleOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +35% NEW |
| 6 | 74' | Daniel Andre Sturridge didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +6% NEW |
| 7 | 85' | Dejan Lovren didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +8% NEW |
| 8 | 88' | Dejan Lovren didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% NEW |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Newcastle 27% · draw 33% · Liverpool 40%
- Final margin
- Newcastle by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.9 for Newcastle
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Newcastle by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Newcastle 34% · draw 30% · Liverpool 36% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Newcastle win 49% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 15, 2015-16
- Arsenal 3–1 Sunderland Dec 5, 2015 · replay 77% for Arsenal
- Stoke 2–0 Man City Dec 5, 2015 · replay 85% for Stoke
- Man United 0–0 West Ham Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Chelsea 0–1 Bournemouth Dec 5, 2015 · replay 60% for Bournemouth
- Swansea 0–3 Leicester Dec 5, 2015 · replay 91% for Leicester
- Southampton 1–1 Aston Villa Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 14% draws
- Watford 2–0 Norwich Dec 5, 2015 · replay 88% for Watford
- West Brom 1–1 Tottenham Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 33% draws
- Everton 1–1 Crystal Palace Dec 7, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws