Matchday 15 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 5, 2015
West Brom 1–1 Tottenham: who deserved to win?
West Brom and Tottenham drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, West Brom win 4 of 10, Tottenham 3, and 3 end level. West Brom made the better chances: 1.0 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 West Bromwich Albion | 1 | 0.99 |
 Tottenham Hotspur | 1 | 0.71 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −7 West Brom about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. West Brom win 4, 3 end level, Tottenham win 3.
- 1 WBA 1 TOT 0
- 2 WBA 1 TOT 0
- 3 WBA 2 TOT 0
- 4 WBA 4 TOT 1
- 5 WBA 0 TOT 0
- 6 WBA 0 TOT 0
- 7 WBA 0 TOT 0
- 8 WBA 0 TOT 2
- 9 WBA 1 TOT 2
- 10 WBA 0 TOT 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
West Brom win 40%, 33% end level, Tottenham win 27%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| West Brom by 3+ | 5.0% |
| West Brom by 2 | 10.7% |
| West Brom by 1 | 24.6% |
| Draw | 33.2% |
| Tottenham by 1 | 18.6% |
| Tottenham by 2 | 6.3% |
| Tottenham by 3+ | 1.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 West Brom | 13 | 1 | 0.99 | +0.01 |
 Tottenham | 9 | 1 | 0.71 | +0.29 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 14' | Bamidele Alli scored from a shot | 0.17 |
| 38' | James McClean scored from a shot | 0.22 |
| 49' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shot | 0.33 |
| 72' | Jonas Olsson didn’t score from a shot | 0.34 |
When it happened
West Brom’s chance of winning
As low as 26% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5' | José Salomón Rondón Giménez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +2% TOT |
| 2 | 14' | Bamidele Alli scored from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +22% TOT |
| 3 | 38' | James McClean scored from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +24% WBA |
| 4 | 49' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +11% WBA |
| 5 | 51' | Craig Gardner didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% TOT |
| 6 | 52' | Erik Lamela didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% WBA |
| 7 | 72' | Jonas Olsson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 34% chance | +13% TOT |
| 8 | 81' | Craig Dawson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% TOT |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
West Brom 41% · draw 34% · Tottenham 25%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Tottenham
- Luck-adjusted margin
- West Brom by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- West Brom 40% · draw 33% · Tottenham 27% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 15 matches, 2015-16 · West Brom · Tottenham
More from matchday 15, 2015-16
- Arsenal 3–1 Sunderland Dec 5, 2015 · replay 77% for Arsenal
- Stoke 2–0 Man City Dec 5, 2015 · replay 85% for Stoke
- Man United 0–0 West Ham Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Chelsea 0–1 Bournemouth Dec 5, 2015 · replay 60% for Bournemouth
- Swansea 0–3 Leicester Dec 5, 2015 · replay 91% for Leicester
- Southampton 1–1 Aston Villa Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 14% draws
- Watford 2–0 Norwich Dec 5, 2015 · replay 88% for Watford
- Newcastle 2–0 Liverpool Dec 6, 2015 · replay 49% for Newcastle
- Everton 1–1 Crystal Palace Dec 7, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws