Matchday 15 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 5, 2015
Watford 2–0 Norwich: who deserved to win?
Watford beat Norwich 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Watford win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Watford made the better chances: 2.2 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Watford | 2 | 2.16 |
 Norwich City | 0 | 0.53 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +12 Watford about even · −12 Norwich
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Watford win 8, 1 ends level, Norwich win 1.
- 1 WAT 1 NOR 0
- 2 WAT 1 NOR 0
- 3 WAT 2 NOR 0
- 4 WAT 3 NOR 1
- 5 WAT 3 NOR 0
- 6 WAT 3 NOR 0
- 7 WAT 4 NOR 0
- 8 WAT 5 NOR 0
- 9 WAT 2 NOR 2
- 10 WAT 1 NOR 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Watford win 82%, 13% end level, Norwich win 5%. The line is what actually happened: Watford by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Watford by 3+ | 36.5% |
| Watford by 2 | 23.7% |
| Watford by 1 | 21.5% |
| Draw | 13.0% |
| Norwich by 1 | 4.2% |
| Norwich by 2 | 0.8% |
| Norwich by 3+ | 0.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Watford | 13 (1 pen) | 2 | 2.16 | −0.16 |
 Norwich | 9 | 0 | 0.53 | −0.53 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 29' | Troy Deeney scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 78' | Odion Jude Ighalo didn’t score from a shot | 0.36 |
| 90' | Odion Jude Ighalo scored from a shot | 0.47 |
When it happened
Watford’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Robert Brady didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +3% WAT |
| 2 | 29' | Troy Deeney scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +6% WAT |
| 3 | 46' | Robert Brady didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +4% WAT |
| 4 | 46' | Sébastien Aymar Bassong Nguena didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% WAT |
| 5 | 76' | Odion Jude Ighalo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +2% NOR |
| 6 | 78' | Odion Jude Ighalo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +2% NOR |
| 7 | 85' | Robert Brady didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% WAT |
| 8 | 88' | Ryan Bennett didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% WAT |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Watford 94% · draw 5% · Norwich 1%
- Final margin
- Watford by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Watford
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Watford by 1.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Watford 82% · draw 13% · Norwich 5% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Watford win 88% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 15 matches, 2015-16 · Watford · Norwich
More from matchday 15, 2015-16
- Arsenal 3–1 Sunderland Dec 5, 2015 · replay 77% for Arsenal
- Stoke 2–0 Man City Dec 5, 2015 · replay 85% for Stoke
- Man United 0–0 West Ham Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Chelsea 0–1 Bournemouth Dec 5, 2015 · replay 60% for Bournemouth
- Swansea 0–3 Leicester Dec 5, 2015 · replay 91% for Leicester
- Southampton 1–1 Aston Villa Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 14% draws
- West Brom 1–1 Tottenham Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 33% draws
- Newcastle 2–0 Liverpool Dec 6, 2015 · replay 49% for Newcastle
- Everton 1–1 Crystal Palace Dec 7, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws