Matchday 15 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 5, 2015
Southampton 1–1 Aston Villa: who deserved to win?
Southampton and Aston Villa drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Southampton win 8 of 10, Aston Villa 1, and 1 end level. Southampton made the better chances: 2.9 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Southampton | 1 | 2.93 |
 Aston Villa | 1 | 0.81 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −33 Southampton unlucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Southampton win 8, 1 ends level, Aston Villa win 1.
- 1 SOU 1 AVL 0
- 2 SOU 3 AVL 2
- 3 SOU 2 AVL 0
- 4 SOU 4 AVL 2
- 5 SOU 3 AVL 0
- 6 SOU 3 AVL 0
- 7 SOU 4 AVL 0
- 8 SOU 6 AVL 1
- 9 SOU 2 AVL 2
- 10 SOU 0 AVL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Southampton win 76%, 14% end level, Aston Villa win 10%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Southampton by 3+ | 34.5% |
| Southampton by 2 | 21.3% |
| Southampton by 1 | 19.9% |
| Draw | 14.3% |
| Aston Villa by 1 | 7.3% |
| Aston Villa by 2 | 1.7% |
| Aston Villa by 3+ | 0.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Southampton | 23 | 1 | 2.93 | −1.93 |
 Aston Villa | 9 | 1 | 0.81 | +0.19 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 18' | Sadio Mané didn’t score from a shot | 0.53 |
| 43' | Joleon Lescott scored from a shot | 0.53 |
| 72' | Oriol Romeu Vidal scored from a shot | 0.63 |
When it happened
Southampton’s chance of winning
As low as 12% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Graziano Pellè didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +4% AVL |
| 2 | 18' | Sadio Mané didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 53% chance | +13% AVL |
| 3 | 32' | Graziano Pellè didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +4% AVL |
| 4 | 43' | Joleon Lescott scored from a shotFinishing · 53% chance | +15% AVL |
| 5 | 65' | Juan Miguel Jiménez López didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% AVL |
| 6 | 69' | Juan Miguel Jiménez López didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +5% AVL |
| 7 | 72' | Oriol Romeu Vidal scored from a shotFinishing · 63% chance | +15% SOU |
| 8 | 89' | Virgil van Dijk didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +7% AVL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Southampton 85% · draw 11% · Aston Villa 5%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 1.6 for Aston Villa
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Southampton by 1.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Southampton 76% · draw 14% · Aston Villa 10% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 15 matches, 2015-16 · Southampton · Aston Villa
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