Matchday 15 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 5, 2015
Arsenal 3–1 Sunderland: who deserved to win?
Arsenal beat Sunderland 3–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Arsenal win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Arsenal made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 0.9. An own goal helped Sunderland.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Arsenal | 3 | 1.84 |
 Sunderland | 1 | 0.88 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +23 Arsenal about even · −23 Sunderland
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Arsenal win 7, 2 end level, Sunderland win 1.
- 1 ARS 1 SUN 0
- 2 ARS 1 SUN 0
- 3 ARS 2 SUN 0
- 4 ARS 3 SUN 1
- 5 ARS 2 SUN 0
- 6 ARS 3 SUN 0
- 7 ARS 4 SUN 0
- 8 ARS 0 SUN 0
- 9 ARS 1 SUN 1
- 10 ARS 1 SUN 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Arsenal win 68%, 19% end level, Sunderland win 14%. The line is what actually happened: Arsenal by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Arsenal by 3+ | 23.1% |
| Arsenal by 2 | 20.6% |
| Arsenal by 1 | 24.1% |
| Draw | 18.7% |
| Sunderland by 1 | 9.8% |
| Sunderland by 2 | 2.8% |
| Sunderland by 3+ | 1.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arsenal | 16 | 3 | 1.84 | +1.16 |
 Sunderland | 10 | 0 | 0.88 | −0.88 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 32' | Joel Nathaniel Campbell Samuels scored from a shot | 0.15 |
| 62' | Olivier Giroud scored from a shot | 0.12 |
| 92' | Aaron Ramsey scored from a shot | 0.49 |
When it happened
Arsenal’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8' | Duncan Watmore didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% ARS |
| 2 | 32' | Joel Nathaniel Campbell Samuels scored from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +22% ARS |
| 3 | 44' | Own goal by nan, for SunderlandOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +28% SUN |
| 4 | 46' | Aaron Ramsey didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +7% SUN |
| 5 | 57' | Steven Fletcher didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +8% ARS |
| 6 | 62' | Olivier Giroud scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +30% ARS |
| 7 | 74' | Duncan Watmore didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% ARS |
| 8 | 88' | Patrick van Aanholt didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +6% ARS |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Arsenal 85% · draw 11% · Sunderland 4%
- Final margin
- Arsenal by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for Arsenal
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arsenal by 1.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Arsenal 68% · draw 19% · Sunderland 14% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Arsenal win 77% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 15, 2015-16
- Stoke 2–0 Man City Dec 5, 2015 · replay 85% for Stoke
- Man United 0–0 West Ham Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Chelsea 0–1 Bournemouth Dec 5, 2015 · replay 60% for Bournemouth
- Swansea 0–3 Leicester Dec 5, 2015 · replay 91% for Leicester
- Southampton 1–1 Aston Villa Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 14% draws
- Watford 2–0 Norwich Dec 5, 2015 · replay 88% for Watford
- West Brom 1–1 Tottenham Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 33% draws
- Newcastle 2–0 Liverpool Dec 6, 2015 · replay 49% for Newcastle
- Everton 1–1 Crystal Palace Dec 7, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws