Matchday 15 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 5, 2015
Man United 0–0 West Ham: who deserved to win?
Man United and West Ham drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Man United win 7 of 10, West Ham 1, and 2 end level. Man United made the better chances: 1.9 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Manchester United | 0 | 1.93 |
 West Ham United | 0 | 0.63 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −28 Man United unlucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Man United win 7, 2 end level, West Ham win 1.
- 1 MUN 1 WHU 0
- 2 MUN 1 WHU 0
- 3 MUN 1 WHU 0
- 4 MUN 3 WHU 1
- 5 MUN 2 WHU 0
- 6 MUN 3 WHU 0
- 7 MUN 5 WHU 1
- 8 MUN 0 WHU 0
- 9 MUN 1 WHU 1
- 10 MUN 0 WHU 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Man United win 67%, 21% end level, West Ham win 12%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Man United by 3+ | 21.8% |
| Man United by 2 | 18.9% |
| Man United by 1 | 26.7% |
| Draw | 20.8% |
| West Ham by 1 | 8.6% |
| West Ham by 2 | 2.6% |
| West Ham by 3+ | 0.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Man United | 21 | 0 | 1.93 | −1.93 |
 West Ham | 9 | 0 | 0.63 | −0.63 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 59' | Marouane Fellaini-Bakkioui didn’t score from a shot | 0.45 |
When it happened
Man United’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11' | Victor Moses didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +4% MUN |
| 2 | 15' | Anthony Martial didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +6% WHU |
| 3 | 55' | Mauro Matías Zárate didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +6% MUN |
| 4 | 59' | Marouane Fellaini-Bakkioui didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 45% chance | +15% WHU |
| 5 | 65' | Juan Manuel Mata García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% WHU |
| 6 | 70' | Bastian Schweinsteiger didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% WHU |
| 7 | 79' | Anthony Martial didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +10% WHU |
| 8 | 91' | Chris Smalling didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +10% WHU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Man United 70% · draw 19% · West Ham 10%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 1.0 for West Ham
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Man United by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Man United 67% · draw 21% · West Ham 12% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 15, 2015-16
- Arsenal 3–1 Sunderland Dec 5, 2015 · replay 77% for Arsenal
- Stoke 2–0 Man City Dec 5, 2015 · replay 85% for Stoke
- Chelsea 0–1 Bournemouth Dec 5, 2015 · replay 60% for Bournemouth
- Swansea 0–3 Leicester Dec 5, 2015 · replay 91% for Leicester
- Southampton 1–1 Aston Villa Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 14% draws
- Watford 2–0 Norwich Dec 5, 2015 · replay 88% for Watford
- West Brom 1–1 Tottenham Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 33% draws
- Newcastle 2–0 Liverpool Dec 6, 2015 · replay 49% for Newcastle
- Everton 1–1 Crystal Palace Dec 7, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws