Matchday 15 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 5, 2015
Stoke 2–0 Man City: who deserved to win?
Stoke beat Man City 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Stoke win 8 of 10, 2 end level. Stoke made the better chances: 1.5 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Stoke City | 2 | 1.53 |
 Manchester City | 0 | 0.48 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +15 Stoke about even · −15 Man City
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Stoke win 8, 2 end level, Man City win 0.
- 1 STK 1 MCI 0
- 2 STK 1 MCI 0
- 3 STK 1 MCI 0
- 4 STK 2 MCI 0
- 5 STK 2 MCI 0
- 6 STK 3 MCI 1
- 7 STK 4 MCI 1
- 8 STK 4 MCI 0
- 9 STK 0 MCI 0
- 10 STK 1 MCI 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Stoke win 76%, 18% end level, Man City win 6%. The line is what actually happened: Stoke by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Stoke by 3+ | 25.0% |
| Stoke by 2 | 23.0% |
| Stoke by 1 | 27.9% |
| Draw | 18.3% |
| Man City by 1 | 4.7% |
| Man City by 2 | 0.9% |
| Man City by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Stoke | 8 | 2 | 1.53 | +0.47 |
 Man City | 11 | 0 | 0.48 | −0.48 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 6' | Marko Arnautović scored from a shot | 0.50 |
| 14' | Marko Arnautović scored from a shot | 0.32 |
| 42' | Marko Arnautović didn’t score from a shot | 0.34 |
When it happened
Stoke’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6' | Marko Arnautović scored from a shotFinishing · 50% chance | +11% STK |
| 2 | 13' | Kevin De Bruyne didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +3% STK |
| 3 | 14' | Marko Arnautović scored from a shotFinishing · 32% chance | +9% STK |
| 4 | 21' | Raheem Sterling didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +1% STK |
| 5 | 31' | Wilfried Guemiand Bony didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +0% STK |
| 6 | 36' | Marko Arnautović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +0% MCI |
| 7 | 40' | Aleksandar Kolarov didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% STK |
| 8 | 42' | Marko Arnautović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 34% chance | +1% MCI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Stoke 89% · draw 8% · Man City 3%
- Final margin
- Stoke by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for Stoke
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Stoke by 1.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Stoke 76% · draw 18% · Man City 6% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Stoke win 85% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 15 matches, 2015-16 · Stoke · Man City
More from matchday 15, 2015-16
- Arsenal 3–1 Sunderland Dec 5, 2015 · replay 77% for Arsenal
- Man United 0–0 West Ham Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Chelsea 0–1 Bournemouth Dec 5, 2015 · replay 60% for Bournemouth
- Swansea 0–3 Leicester Dec 5, 2015 · replay 91% for Leicester
- Southampton 1–1 Aston Villa Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 14% draws
- Watford 2–0 Norwich Dec 5, 2015 · replay 88% for Watford
- West Brom 1–1 Tottenham Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 33% draws
- Newcastle 2–0 Liverpool Dec 6, 2015 · replay 49% for Newcastle
- Everton 1–1 Crystal Palace Dec 7, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws