Matchday 15 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 7, 2015
Everton 1–1 Crystal Palace: who deserved to win?
Everton and Crystal Palace drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Everton win 6 of 10, Crystal Palace 2, and 2 end level. Everton made the better chances: 1.9 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Everton | 1 | 1.89 |
 Crystal Palace | 1 | 0.83 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −20 Everton about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Everton win 6, 2 end level, Crystal Palace win 2.
- 1 EVE 1 CRY 0
- 2 EVE 1 CRY 0
- 3 EVE 1 CRY 0
- 4 EVE 2 CRY 0
- 5 EVE 3 CRY 1
- 6 EVE 4 CRY 1
- 7 EVE 2 CRY 2
- 8 EVE 1 CRY 1
- 9 EVE 0 CRY 2
- 10 EVE 0 CRY 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Everton win 58%, 23% end level, Crystal Palace win 19%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Everton by 3+ | 14.4% |
| Everton by 2 | 17.9% |
| Everton by 1 | 26.0% |
| Draw | 22.9% |
| Crystal Palace by 1 | 12.8% |
| Crystal Palace by 2 | 4.9% |
| Crystal Palace by 3+ | 1.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Everton | 19 | 1 | 1.89 | −0.89 |
 Crystal Palace | 14 | 1 | 0.83 | +0.17 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 75' | Scott Dann scored from a shot | 0.15 |
| 80' | Romelu Lukaku Menama scored from a shot | 0.90 |
When it happened
Everton’s chance of winning
As low as 7% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52' | Ross Barkley didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% CRY |
| 2 | 54' | Yannick Bolasie Yala didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% EVE |
| 3 | 65' | Tom Cleverley didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% CRY |
| 4 | 74' | Jason Puncheon didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% EVE |
| 5 | 75' | Scott Dann scored from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +36% CRY |
| 6 | 80' | Romelu Lukaku Menama scored from a shotFinishing · 90% chance | +5% EVE |
| 7 | 90' | Jordon Mutch didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% EVE |
| 8 | 93' | Arouna Koné didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% CRY |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Everton 67% · draw 21% · Crystal Palace 12%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for Crystal Palace
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Everton by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Everton 58% · draw 23% · Crystal Palace 19% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 15, 2015-16
- Arsenal 3–1 Sunderland Dec 5, 2015 · replay 77% for Arsenal
- Stoke 2–0 Man City Dec 5, 2015 · replay 85% for Stoke
- Man United 0–0 West Ham Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Chelsea 0–1 Bournemouth Dec 5, 2015 · replay 60% for Bournemouth
- Swansea 0–3 Leicester Dec 5, 2015 · replay 91% for Leicester
- Southampton 1–1 Aston Villa Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 14% draws
- Watford 2–0 Norwich Dec 5, 2015 · replay 88% for Watford
- West Brom 1–1 Tottenham Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 33% draws
- Newcastle 2–0 Liverpool Dec 6, 2015 · replay 49% for Newcastle