Matchday 16 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 13, 2015
Tottenham 1–2 Newcastle: who deserved to win?
Newcastle beat Tottenham 2–1, but the replays call it even: Newcastle win 3 of 10, Tottenham 4, 3 end level. Newcastle made the better chances: 1.4 expected goals to 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Tottenham Hotspur | 1 | 1.11 |
 Newcastle United | 2 | 1.45 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +49 Newcastle lucky · −49 Tottenham
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Tottenham win 4, 3 end level, Newcastle win 3.
- 1 TOT 1 NEW 0
- 2 TOT 2 NEW 1
- 3 TOT 3 NEW 1
- 4 TOT 3 NEW 1
- 5 TOT 1 NEW 1
- 6 TOT 1 NEW 1
- 7 TOT 0 NEW 0
- 8 TOT 0 NEW 3
- 9 TOT 1 NEW 3
- 10 TOT 1 NEW 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Tottenham win 36%, 27% end level, Newcastle win 37%. The line is what actually happened: Newcastle by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Tottenham by 3+ | 5.3% |
| Tottenham by 2 | 10.5% |
| Tottenham by 1 | 19.9% |
| Draw | 26.8% |
| Newcastle by 1 | 20.7% |
| Newcastle by 2 | 10.5% |
| Newcastle by 3+ | 6.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tottenham | 20 | 1 | 1.11 | −0.11 |
 Newcastle | 8 | 2 | 1.45 | +0.55 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 38' | Eric Dier scored from a shot | 0.06 |
| 73' | Chancel Mbemba Mangulu didn’t score from a shot | 0.30 |
| 73' | Aleksandar Mitrović scored from a shot | 0.78 |
| 92' | Ayoze Pérez Gutiérrez scored from a shot | 0.05 |
When it happened
Tottenham’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 92%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37' | Erik Lamela didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +6% NEW |
| 2 | 38' | Eric Dier scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +26% TOT |
| 3 | 51' | Papiss Demba Cissé didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% TOT |
| 4 | 73' | Chancel Mbemba Mangulu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +12% TOT |
| 5 | 73' | Aleksandar Mitrović scored from a shotFinishing · 78% chance | +9% NEW |
| 6 | 75' | Heung-Min Son didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% NEW |
| 7 | 82' | Christian Dannemann Eriksen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% NEW |
| 8 | 92' | Ayoze Pérez Gutiérrez scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +47% NEW |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Tottenham 25% · draw 28% · Newcastle 48%
- Final margin
- Newcastle by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Newcastle
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Newcastle by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Tottenham 36% · draw 27% · Newcastle 37% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Newcastle win 51% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 16, 2015-16
- Sunderland 0–1 Watford Dec 12, 2015 · replay 70% for Watford
- Bournemouth 2–1 Man United Dec 12, 2015 · replay 52% for Bournemouth
- West Ham 0–0 Stoke Dec 12, 2015 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Crystal Palace 1–0 Southampton Dec 12, 2015 · replay 62% for Crystal Palace
- Man City 2–1 Swansea Dec 12, 2015 · replay 44% for Man City
- Norwich 1–1 Everton Dec 12, 2015 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Aston Villa 0–2 Arsenal Dec 13, 2015 · replay 80% for Arsenal
- Liverpool 2–2 West Brom Dec 13, 2015 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Leicester 2–1 Chelsea Dec 14, 2015 · replay 33% for Leicester