Matchday 16 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 12, 2015
West Ham 0–0 Stoke: who deserved to win?
West Ham and Stoke drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, West Ham win 5 of 10, Stoke 3, and 2 end level. West Ham made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 1.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 West Ham United | 0 | 1.78 |
 Stoke City | 0 | 1.46 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −7 West Ham about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. West Ham win 5, 2 end level, Stoke win 3.
- 1 WHU 1 STK 0
- 2 WHU 1 STK 0
- 3 WHU 2 STK 0
- 4 WHU 3 STK 1
- 5 WHU 3 STK 0
- 6 WHU 1 STK 1
- 7 WHU 1 STK 1
- 8 WHU 0 STK 3
- 9 WHU 1 STK 3
- 10 WHU 0 STK 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
West Ham win 46%, 22% end level, Stoke win 32%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| West Ham by 3+ | 11.7% |
| West Ham by 2 | 13.7% |
| West Ham by 1 | 20.3% |
| Draw | 22.4% |
| Stoke by 1 | 16.2% |
| Stoke by 2 | 9.9% |
| Stoke by 3+ | 5.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 West Ham | 24 | 0 | 1.78 | −1.78 |
 Stoke | 12 | 0 | 1.46 | −1.46 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 28' | Marko Arnautović didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
| 88' | Mame Biram Diouf didn’t score from a shot | 0.43 |
When it happened
West Ham’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28' | Marko Arnautović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +9% WHU |
| 2 | 55' | Michail Antonio didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +6% STK |
| 3 | 60' | Michail Antonio didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +4% STK |
| 4 | 62' | Andy Carroll didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +5% STK |
| 5 | 79' | Mame Biram Diouf didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +10% WHU |
| 6 | 81' | Enner Remberto Valencia Lastra didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +12% STK |
| 7 | 88' | Mame Biram Diouf didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 43% chance | +21% WHU |
| 8 | 93' | Cheikhou Kouyaté didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +9% STK |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
West Ham 46% · draw 24% · Stoke 30%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Stoke
- Luck-adjusted margin
- West Ham by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- West Ham 46% · draw 22% · Stoke 32% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 16 matches, 2015-16 · West Ham · Stoke
More from matchday 16, 2015-16
- Sunderland 0–1 Watford Dec 12, 2015 · replay 70% for Watford
- Bournemouth 2–1 Man United Dec 12, 2015 · replay 52% for Bournemouth
- Crystal Palace 1–0 Southampton Dec 12, 2015 · replay 62% for Crystal Palace
- Man City 2–1 Swansea Dec 12, 2015 · replay 44% for Man City
- Norwich 1–1 Everton Dec 12, 2015 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Aston Villa 0–2 Arsenal Dec 13, 2015 · replay 80% for Arsenal
- Liverpool 2–2 West Brom Dec 13, 2015 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Tottenham 1–2 Newcastle Dec 13, 2015 · replay 51% for Newcastle
- Leicester 2–1 Chelsea Dec 14, 2015 · replay 33% for Leicester