Matchday 16 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 13, 2015
Aston Villa 0–2 Arsenal: who deserved to win?
Arsenal beat Aston Villa 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Arsenal win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Arsenal made the better chances: 1.9 expected goals to 1.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Aston Villa | 0 | 1.03 |
 Arsenal | 2 | 1.90 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +20 Arsenal about even · −20 Aston Villa
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Aston Villa win 1, 2 end level, Arsenal win 7.
- 1 AVL 1 ARS 0
- 2 AVL 1 ARS 1
- 3 AVL 1 ARS 1
- 4 AVL 0 ARS 5
- 5 AVL 0 ARS 3
- 6 AVL 0 ARS 3
- 7 AVL 0 ARS 2
- 8 AVL 0 ARS 2
- 9 AVL 2 ARS 3
- 10 AVL 2 ARS 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Aston Villa win 11%, 17% end level, Arsenal win 72%. The line is what actually happened: Arsenal by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa by 3+ | 0.8% |
| Aston Villa by 2 | 2.5% |
| Aston Villa by 1 | 7.9% |
| Draw | 17.4% |
| Arsenal by 1 | 24.1% |
| Arsenal by 2 | 20.2% |
| Arsenal by 3+ | 27.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aston Villa | 19 | 0 | 1.03 | −1.03 |
 Arsenal | 9 (1 pen) | 2 | 1.90 | +0.10 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 7' | Olivier Giroud scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 37' | Aaron Ramsey scored from a shot | 0.72 |
When it happened
Aston Villa’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Olivier Giroud scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +5% ARS |
| 2 | 19' | Olivier Giroud didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% AVL |
| 3 | 19' | Laurent Koscielny didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% AVL |
| 4 | 20' | Leandro Bacuna didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% ARS |
| 5 | 37' | Aaron Ramsey scored from a shotFinishing · 72% chance | +5% ARS |
| 6 | 42' | Alan Hutton didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% ARS |
| 7 | 48' | Rudy Gestede didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +1% ARS |
| 8 | 55' | Scott Sinclair didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +3% ARS |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Aston Villa 5% · draw 11% · Arsenal 83%
- Final margin
- Arsenal by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for Arsenal
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arsenal by 1.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Aston Villa 11% · draw 17% · Arsenal 72% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Arsenal win 80% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 16, 2015-16
- Sunderland 0–1 Watford Dec 12, 2015 · replay 70% for Watford
- Bournemouth 2–1 Man United Dec 12, 2015 · replay 52% for Bournemouth
- West Ham 0–0 Stoke Dec 12, 2015 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Crystal Palace 1–0 Southampton Dec 12, 2015 · replay 62% for Crystal Palace
- Man City 2–1 Swansea Dec 12, 2015 · replay 44% for Man City
- Norwich 1–1 Everton Dec 12, 2015 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Liverpool 2–2 West Brom Dec 13, 2015 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Tottenham 1–2 Newcastle Dec 13, 2015 · replay 51% for Newcastle
- Leicester 2–1 Chelsea Dec 14, 2015 · replay 33% for Leicester