Matchday 16 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 12, 2015
Bournemouth 2–1 Man United: who deserved to win?
Bournemouth beat Man United 2–1, but the replays call it even: Bournemouth win 4 of 10, Man United 3, 3 end level. Man United made the better chances: 1.5 expected goals to 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 AFC Bournemouth | 2 | 1.13 |
 Manchester United | 1 | 1.52 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +48 Bournemouth lucky · −48 Man United
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bournemouth win 4, 3 end level, Man United win 3.
- 1 BOU 2 MUN 1
- 2 BOU 1 MUN 0
- 3 BOU 3 MUN 1
- 4 BOU 3 MUN 0
- 5 BOU 0 MUN 0
- 6 BOU 2 MUN 2
- 7 BOU 0 MUN 0
- 8 BOU 1 MUN 3
- 9 BOU 2 MUN 3
- 10 BOU 1 MUN 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Bournemouth win 39%, 27% end level, Man United win 35%. The line is what actually happened: Bournemouth by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bournemouth by 3+ | 6.0% |
| Bournemouth by 2 | 10.9% |
| Bournemouth by 1 | 21.6% |
| Draw | 26.8% |
| Man United by 1 | 20.5% |
| Man United by 2 | 9.0% |
| Man United by 3+ | 5.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bournemouth | 11 | 2 | 1.13 | +0.87 |
 Man United | 11 | 1 | 1.52 | −0.52 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 1' | Junior Stanislas scored from a corner | 0.00 |
| 4' | Marouane Fellaini-Bakkioui didn’t score from a shot | 0.38 |
| 23' | Marouane Fellaini-Bakkioui scored from a shot | 0.31 |
| 53' | Joshua King scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 70' | Glenn Murray didn’t score from a shot | 0.55 |
When it happened
Bournemouth’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1' | Junior Stanislas scored from a cornerFinishing · 0% chance | +22% BOU |
| 2 | 4' | Marouane Fellaini-Bakkioui didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +8% BOU |
| 3 | 17' | Anthony Martial didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +4% BOU |
| 4 | 23' | Memphis Depay didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +3% BOU |
| 5 | 23' | Marouane Fellaini-Bakkioui scored from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +17% MUN |
| 6 | 53' | Joshua King scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +27% BOU |
| 7 | 60' | Marouane Fellaini-Bakkioui didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +5% BOU |
| 8 | 70' | Glenn Murray didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 55% chance | +4% MUN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bournemouth 28% · draw 26% · Man United 45%
- Final margin
- Bournemouth by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.0 for Bournemouth
- Luck-adjusted margin
- even
- Replay with same day's form
- Bournemouth 39% · draw 27% · Man United 35% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Bournemouth win 52% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 16, 2015-16
- Sunderland 0–1 Watford Dec 12, 2015 · replay 70% for Watford
- West Ham 0–0 Stoke Dec 12, 2015 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Crystal Palace 1–0 Southampton Dec 12, 2015 · replay 62% for Crystal Palace
- Man City 2–1 Swansea Dec 12, 2015 · replay 44% for Man City
- Norwich 1–1 Everton Dec 12, 2015 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Aston Villa 0–2 Arsenal Dec 13, 2015 · replay 80% for Arsenal
- Liverpool 2–2 West Brom Dec 13, 2015 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Tottenham 1–2 Newcastle Dec 13, 2015 · replay 51% for Newcastle
- Leicester 2–1 Chelsea Dec 14, 2015 · replay 33% for Leicester