Matchday 16 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 12, 2015
Norwich 1–1 Everton: who deserved to win?
Norwich and Everton drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Norwich win 2 of 10, Everton 6, and 2 end level. Everton made the better chances: 1.9 expected goals to 1.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Norwich City | 1 | 1.31 |
 Everton | 1 | 1.87 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +18 Norwich about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Norwich win 2, 2 end level, Everton win 6.
- 1 NOR 4 EVE 3
- 2 NOR 4 EVE 2
- 3 NOR 1 EVE 1
- 4 NOR 2 EVE 2
- 5 NOR 0 EVE 4
- 6 NOR 0 EVE 3
- 7 NOR 1 EVE 3
- 8 NOR 0 EVE 2
- 9 NOR 1 EVE 2
- 10 NOR 0 EVE 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Norwich win 22%, 20% end level, Everton win 59%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Norwich by 3+ | 2.6% |
| Norwich by 2 | 5.8% |
| Norwich by 1 | 13.1% |
| Draw | 19.9% |
| Everton by 1 | 22.0% |
| Everton by 2 | 17.3% |
| Everton by 3+ | 19.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Norwich | 8 | 1 | 1.31 | −0.31 |
 Everton | 15 | 1 | 1.87 | −0.87 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 14' | Romelu Lukaku Menama scored from a shot | 0.26 |
| 30' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shot | 0.55 |
| 46' | Wes Hoolahan scored from a shot | 0.76 |
| 69' | Cameron Jerome didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
When it happened
Norwich’s chance of winning
As low as 23% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14' | Romelu Lukaku Menama scored from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +19% EVE |
| 2 | 18' | Arouna Koné didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +5% NOR |
| 3 | 30' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 55% chance | +10% NOR |
| 4 | 46' | Wes Hoolahan scored from a shotFinishing · 76% chance | +8% NOR |
| 5 | 57' | Robert Brady didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% EVE |
| 6 | 68' | Arouna Koné didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +6% NOR |
| 7 | 69' | Cameron Jerome didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +12% EVE |
| 8 | 78' | Gareth Barry didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +8% NOR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Norwich 23% · draw 27% · Everton 51%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Norwich
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Everton by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Norwich 22% · draw 20% · Everton 59% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 16 matches, 2015-16 · Norwich · Everton
More from matchday 16, 2015-16
- Sunderland 0–1 Watford Dec 12, 2015 · replay 70% for Watford
- Bournemouth 2–1 Man United Dec 12, 2015 · replay 52% for Bournemouth
- West Ham 0–0 Stoke Dec 12, 2015 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Crystal Palace 1–0 Southampton Dec 12, 2015 · replay 62% for Crystal Palace
- Man City 2–1 Swansea Dec 12, 2015 · replay 44% for Man City
- Aston Villa 0–2 Arsenal Dec 13, 2015 · replay 80% for Arsenal
- Liverpool 2–2 West Brom Dec 13, 2015 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Tottenham 1–2 Newcastle Dec 13, 2015 · replay 51% for Newcastle
- Leicester 2–1 Chelsea Dec 14, 2015 · replay 33% for Leicester