Matchday 16 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 14, 2015
Leicester 2–1 Chelsea: who deserved to win?
Leicester beat Chelsea 2–1, but the replays lean toward Chelsea: 5 wins in 10 to Leicester’s 2, 3 end level. Chelsea made the better chances: 2.1 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Leicester City | 2 | 0.64 |
 Chelsea | 1 | 2.06 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +67 Leicester very lucky · −67 Chelsea
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Leicester win 2, 3 end level, Chelsea win 5.
- 1 LEI 1 CHE 0
- 2 LEI 4 CHE 2
- 3 LEI 0 CHE 0
- 4 LEI 0 CHE 0
- 5 LEI 1 CHE 1
- 6 LEI 0 CHE 3
- 7 LEI 0 CHE 2
- 8 LEI 0 CHE 1
- 9 LEI 1 CHE 2
- 10 LEI 0 CHE 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Leicester win 19%, 27% end level, Chelsea win 54%. The line is what actually happened: Leicester by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Leicester by 3+ | 1.7% |
| Leicester by 2 | 4.0% |
| Leicester by 1 | 13.7% |
| Draw | 26.6% |
| Chelsea by 1 | 26.8% |
| Chelsea by 2 | 17.0% |
| Chelsea by 3+ | 10.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Leicester | 9 | 2 | 0.64 | +1.36 |
 Chelsea | 11 | 1 | 2.06 | −1.06 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 33' | Jamie Vardy scored from a shot | 0.19 |
| 47' | Riyad Mahrez scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 61' | Diego da Silva Costa didn’t score from a shot | 0.56 |
| 61' | Branislav Ivanović didn’t score from a shot | 0.40 |
| 61' | Branislav Ivanović didn’t score from a shot | 0.38 |
| 76' | Loïc Rémy scored from a shot | 0.36 |
When it happened
Leicester’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33' | Jamie Vardy scored from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +21% LEI |
| 2 | 35' | Nemanja Matić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% LEI |
| 3 | 47' | Riyad Mahrez scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +11% LEI |
| 4 | 61' | Diego da Silva Costa didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 56% chance | +6% LEI |
| 5 | 61' | Branislav Ivanović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 40% chance | +4% LEI |
| 6 | 61' | Branislav Ivanović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +4% LEI |
| 7 | 76' | Loïc Rémy scored from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +4% CHE |
| 8 | 83' | Loïc Rémy didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% LEI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Leicester 9% · draw 17% · Chelsea 74%
- Final margin
- Leicester by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.8 for Leicester
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Chelsea by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Leicester 19% · draw 27% · Chelsea 54% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Leicester win 33% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 16 matches, 2015-16 · Leicester · Chelsea
More from matchday 16, 2015-16
- Sunderland 0–1 Watford Dec 12, 2015 · replay 70% for Watford
- Bournemouth 2–1 Man United Dec 12, 2015 · replay 52% for Bournemouth
- West Ham 0–0 Stoke Dec 12, 2015 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Crystal Palace 1–0 Southampton Dec 12, 2015 · replay 62% for Crystal Palace
- Man City 2–1 Swansea Dec 12, 2015 · replay 44% for Man City
- Norwich 1–1 Everton Dec 12, 2015 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Aston Villa 0–2 Arsenal Dec 13, 2015 · replay 80% for Arsenal
- Liverpool 2–2 West Brom Dec 13, 2015 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Tottenham 1–2 Newcastle Dec 13, 2015 · replay 51% for Newcastle