Matchday 16 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 12, 2015
Sunderland 0–1 Watford: who deserved to win?
Watford beat Sunderland 1–0, and the replays lean Watford’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Sunderland, 2 end level. Watford made the better chances: 1.9 expected goals to 1.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sunderland | 0 | 1.39 |
 Watford | 1 | 1.85 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +30 Watford lucky · −30 Sunderland
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sunderland win 2, 2 end level, Watford win 6.
- 1 SUN 1 WAT 0
- 2 SUN 2 WAT 0
- 3 SUN 2 WAT 2
- 4 SUN 2 WAT 2
- 5 SUN 0 WAT 4
- 6 SUN 0 WAT 3
- 7 SUN 1 WAT 3
- 8 SUN 0 WAT 2
- 9 SUN 1 WAT 2
- 10 SUN 2 WAT 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sunderland win 20%, 19% end level, Watford win 61%. The line is what actually happened: Watford by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sunderland by 3+ | 2.9% |
| Sunderland by 2 | 5.2% |
| Sunderland by 1 | 12.0% |
| Draw | 18.9% |
| Watford by 1 | 22.2% |
| Watford by 2 | 17.6% |
| Watford by 3+ | 21.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sunderland | 16 | 0 | 1.39 | −1.39 |
 Watford | 13 | 1 | 1.85 | −0.85 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 3' | Odion Jude Ighalo scored from a shot | 0.21 |
| 80' | Odion Jude Ighalo didn’t score from a shot | 0.46 |
| 83' | Jermain Defoe didn’t score from a shot | 0.35 |
| 92' | Odion Jude Ighalo didn’t score from a shot | 0.33 |
When it happened
Sunderland’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | Odion Jude Ighalo scored from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +19% WAT |
| 2 | 10' | Almen Abdi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +3% SUN |
| 3 | 16' | Fabio Borini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% WAT |
| 4 | 64' | Jack Rodwell didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% WAT |
| 5 | 80' | Jermain Defoe didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +10% WAT |
| 6 | 83' | Jermain Defoe didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 35% chance | +16% WAT |
| 7 | 88' | Adam Johnson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% WAT |
| 8 | 91' | Jack Rodwell didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +10% WAT |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sunderland 28% · draw 24% · Watford 48%
- Final margin
- Watford by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Watford
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Watford by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Sunderland 20% · draw 19% · Watford 61% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Watford win 70% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 16 matches, 2015-16 · Sunderland · Watford
More from matchday 16, 2015-16
- Bournemouth 2–1 Man United Dec 12, 2015 · replay 52% for Bournemouth
- West Ham 0–0 Stoke Dec 12, 2015 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Crystal Palace 1–0 Southampton Dec 12, 2015 · replay 62% for Crystal Palace
- Man City 2–1 Swansea Dec 12, 2015 · replay 44% for Man City
- Norwich 1–1 Everton Dec 12, 2015 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Aston Villa 0–2 Arsenal Dec 13, 2015 · replay 80% for Arsenal
- Liverpool 2–2 West Brom Dec 13, 2015 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Tottenham 1–2 Newcastle Dec 13, 2015 · replay 51% for Newcastle
- Leicester 2–1 Chelsea Dec 14, 2015 · replay 33% for Leicester