Matchday 16 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 12, 2015
Crystal Palace 1–0 Southampton: who deserved to win?
Crystal Palace beat Southampton 1–0, and the replays lean Crystal Palace’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Southampton, 3 end level. Crystal Palace made the better chances: 1.2 expected goals to 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Crystal Palace | 1 | 1.20 |
 Southampton | 0 | 0.94 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +38 Crystal Palace lucky · −38 Southampton
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Crystal Palace win 5, 3 end level, Southampton win 2.
- 1 CRY 1 SOU 0
- 2 CRY 2 SOU 1
- 3 CRY 1 SOU 0
- 4 CRY 2 SOU 0
- 5 CRY 3 SOU 0
- 6 CRY 1 SOU 1
- 7 CRY 1 SOU 1
- 8 CRY 0 SOU 0
- 9 CRY 2 SOU 4
- 10 CRY 0 SOU 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Crystal Palace win 47%, 29% end level, Southampton win 24%. The line is what actually happened: Crystal Palace by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Crystal Palace by 3+ | 8.0% |
| Crystal Palace by 2 | 14.7% |
| Crystal Palace by 1 | 24.7% |
| Draw | 28.6% |
| Southampton by 1 | 16.4% |
| Southampton by 2 | 5.6% |
| Southampton by 3+ | 2.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Crystal Palace | 13 | 1 | 1.20 | −0.20 |
 Southampton | 15 | 0 | 0.94 | −0.94 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 37' | Yohan Cabaye scored from a shot | 0.66 |
When it happened
Crystal Palace’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24' | Shane Long didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% CRY |
| 2 | 31' | Steven Davis didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +5% CRY |
| 3 | 34' | Sadio Mané didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% CRY |
| 4 | 37' | Yohan Cabaye scored from a shotFinishing · 66% chance | +9% CRY |
| 5 | 54' | Shane Long didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% CRY |
| 6 | 89' | Sadio Mané didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% CRY |
| 7 | 92' | Shane Long didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +13% CRY |
| 8 | 93' | Shane Long didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +4% CRY |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Crystal Palace 45% · draw 29% · Southampton 26%
- Final margin
- Crystal Palace by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for Crystal Palace
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Crystal Palace by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Crystal Palace 47% · draw 29% · Southampton 24% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Crystal Palace win 62% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 16 matches, 2015-16 · Crystal Palace · Southampton
More from matchday 16, 2015-16
- Sunderland 0–1 Watford Dec 12, 2015 · replay 70% for Watford
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- West Ham 0–0 Stoke Dec 12, 2015 · drawn; replay 22% draws
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- Norwich 1–1 Everton Dec 12, 2015 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Aston Villa 0–2 Arsenal Dec 13, 2015 · replay 80% for Arsenal
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