Matchday 16 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 13, 2015
Liverpool 2–2 West Brom: who deserved to win?
Liverpool and West Brom drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Liverpool win 8 of 10, West Brom 0, and 2 end level. Liverpool made the better chances: 2.3 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Liverpool | 2 | 2.32 |
 West Bromwich Albion | 2 | 0.48 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −35 Liverpool unlucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Liverpool win 8, 2 end level, West Brom win 0.
- 1 LIV 3 WBA 2
- 2 LIV 1 WBA 0
- 3 LIV 3 WBA 2
- 4 LIV 2 WBA 0
- 5 LIV 2 WBA 0
- 6 LIV 3 WBA 0
- 7 LIV 4 WBA 0
- 8 LIV 4 WBA 0
- 9 LIV 1 WBA 1
- 10 LIV 1 WBA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Liverpool win 77%, 16% end level, West Brom win 7%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Liverpool by 3+ | 30.6% |
| Liverpool by 2 | 21.9% |
| Liverpool by 1 | 24.3% |
| Draw | 15.9% |
| West Brom by 1 | 5.8% |
| West Brom by 2 | 1.3% |
| West Brom by 3+ | 0.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Liverpool | 28 | 2 | 2.32 | −0.32 |
 West Brom | 4 | 2 | 0.48 | +1.52 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 20' | Jordan Brian Henderson scored from a shot | 0.43 |
| 29' | Craig Dawson scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 72' | Jonas Olsson scored from a shot | 0.19 |
| 79' | Adam David Lallana didn’t score from a shot | 0.41 |
| 95' | Divock Okoth Origi scored from a shot | 0.02 |
When it happened
Liverpool’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 83%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16' | Christian Benteke Liolo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +6% WBA |
| 2 | 20' | Jordan Brian Henderson scored from a shotFinishing · 43% chance | +14% LIV |
| 3 | 29' | Craig Dawson scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +23% WBA |
| 4 | 51' | Christian Benteke Liolo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% WBA |
| 5 | 60' | Christian Benteke Liolo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% WBA |
| 6 | 72' | Jonas Olsson scored from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +33% WBA |
| 7 | 79' | Adam David Lallana didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 41% chance | +18% WBA |
| 8 | 95' | Divock Okoth Origi scored from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +49% LIV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Liverpool 81% · draw 13% · West Brom 5%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 1.4 for West Brom
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Liverpool by 1.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Liverpool 77% · draw 16% · West Brom 7% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 16 matches, 2015-16 · Liverpool · West Brom
More from matchday 16, 2015-16
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