Matchday 16 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 12, 2015
Man City 2–1 Swansea: who deserved to win?
Man City beat Swansea 2–1, but the replays lean toward Swansea: 4 wins in 10 to Man City’s 3, 3 end level. Swansea made the better chances: 1.2 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Manchester City | 2 | 0.78 |
 Swansea City | 1 | 1.23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +56 Man City lucky · −56 Swansea
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Man City win 3, 3 end level, Swansea win 4.
- 1 MCI 1 SWA 0
- 2 MCI 1 SWA 0
- 3 MCI 2 SWA 0
- 4 MCI 1 SWA 1
- 5 MCI 0 SWA 0
- 6 MCI 0 SWA 0
- 7 MCI 0 SWA 3
- 8 MCI 0 SWA 1
- 9 MCI 0 SWA 1
- 10 MCI 0 SWA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Man City win 29%, 30% end level, Swansea win 41%. The line is what actually happened: Man City by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Man City by 3+ | 2.5% |
| Man City by 2 | 8.3% |
| Man City by 1 | 17.8% |
| Draw | 30.2% |
| Swansea by 1 | 23.9% |
| Swansea by 2 | 12.0% |
| Swansea by 3+ | 5.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Man City | 14 | 2 | 0.78 | +1.22 |
 Swansea | 13 | 1 | 1.23 | −0.23 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 4' | Wayne Routledge didn’t score from a shot | 0.43 |
| 25' | Wilfried Guemiand Bony scored from a shot | 0.16 |
| 89' | Bafétimbi Gomis scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 91' | Kelechi Promise Iheanacho scored from a shot | 0.03 |
When it happened
Man City’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Wayne Routledge didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 43% chance | +11% MCI |
| 2 | 14' | Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% MCI |
| 3 | 25' | Wilfried Guemiand Bony scored from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +21% MCI |
| 4 | 53' | Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% MCI |
| 5 | 77' | Sung-Yeung Ki didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% MCI |
| 6 | 87' | Bafétimbi Gomis didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% MCI |
| 7 | 89' | Bafétimbi Gomis scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +45% SWA |
| 8 | 91' | Kelechi Promise Iheanacho scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +48% MCI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Man City 25% · draw 28% · Swansea 47%
- Final margin
- Man City by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.1 for Man City
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Swansea by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Man City 29% · draw 30% · Swansea 41% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Man City win 44% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 16 matches, 2015-16 · Man City · Swansea
More from matchday 16, 2015-16
- Sunderland 0–1 Watford Dec 12, 2015 · replay 70% for Watford
- Bournemouth 2–1 Man United Dec 12, 2015 · replay 52% for Bournemouth
- West Ham 0–0 Stoke Dec 12, 2015 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Crystal Palace 1–0 Southampton Dec 12, 2015 · replay 62% for Crystal Palace
- Norwich 1–1 Everton Dec 12, 2015 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Aston Villa 0–2 Arsenal Dec 13, 2015 · replay 80% for Arsenal
- Liverpool 2–2 West Brom Dec 13, 2015 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Tottenham 1–2 Newcastle Dec 13, 2015 · replay 51% for Newcastle
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