Matchday 17 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 19, 2015
Southampton 0–2 Tottenham: who deserved to win?
Tottenham beat Southampton 2–0, and the replays lean Tottenham’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Southampton, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (1.1 expected goals to 1.3).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Southampton | 0 | 1.05 |
 Tottenham Hotspur | 2 | 1.29 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +35 Tottenham lucky · −35 Southampton
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Southampton win 2, 3 end level, Tottenham win 5.
- 1 SOU 1 TOT 0
- 2 SOU 2 TOT 1
- 3 SOU 1 TOT 1
- 4 SOU 1 TOT 1
- 5 SOU 3 TOT 3
- 6 SOU 0 TOT 3
- 7 SOU 0 TOT 2
- 8 SOU 1 TOT 2
- 9 SOU 0 TOT 1
- 10 SOU 1 TOT 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Southampton win 22%, 26% end level, Tottenham win 52%. The line is what actually happened: Tottenham by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Southampton by 3+ | 1.3% |
| Southampton by 2 | 5.1% |
| Southampton by 1 | 15.7% |
| Draw | 26.4% |
| Tottenham by 1 | 25.1% |
| Tottenham by 2 | 15.7% |
| Tottenham by 3+ | 10.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Southampton | 11 | 0 | 1.05 | −1.05 |
 Tottenham | 12 | 2 | 1.29 | +0.71 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 39' | Harry Kane scored from a shot | 0.50 |
| 42' | Bamidele Alli scored from a shot | 0.47 |
When it happened
Southampton’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5' | Sadio Mané didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% TOT |
| 2 | 7' | Sadio Mané didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% TOT |
| 3 | 20' | Erik Lamela didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% SOU |
| 4 | 23' | Sadio Mané didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% TOT |
| 5 | 35' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% SOU |
| 6 | 39' | Harry Kane scored from a shotFinishing · 50% chance | +15% TOT |
| 7 | 42' | Bamidele Alli scored from a shotFinishing · 47% chance | +9% TOT |
| 8 | 54' | Graziano Pellè didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +1% TOT |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Southampton 11% · draw 17% · Tottenham 71%
- Final margin
- Tottenham by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.3 for Tottenham
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Tottenham by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Southampton 22% · draw 26% · Tottenham 52% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Tottenham win 65% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 17 matches, 2015-16 · Southampton · Tottenham
More from matchday 17, 2015-16
- Newcastle 1–1 Aston Villa Dec 19, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Chelsea 3–1 Sunderland Dec 19, 2015 · replay 93% for Chelsea
- Stoke 1–2 Crystal Palace Dec 19, 2015 · replay 48% for Crystal Palace
- Everton 2–3 Leicester Dec 19, 2015 · replay 71% for Leicester
- West Brom 1–2 Bournemouth Dec 19, 2015 · replay 85% for Bournemouth
- Man United 1–2 Norwich Dec 19, 2015 · replay 56% for Norwich
- Watford 3–0 Liverpool Dec 20, 2015 · replay 87% for Watford
- Swansea 0–0 West Ham Dec 20, 2015 · drawn; replay 33% draws
- Arsenal 2–1 Man City Dec 21, 2015 · replay 68% for Arsenal