Matchday 17 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 19, 2015
Man United 1–2 Norwich: who deserved to win?
Norwich beat Man United 2–1, and the replays lean Norwich’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Man United, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (0.9 expected goals to 0.9).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Manchester United | 1 | 0.94 |
 Norwich City | 2 | 0.92 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +44 Norwich lucky · −44 Man United
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Man United win 3, 3 end level, Norwich win 4.
- 1 MUN 1 NOR 0
- 2 MUN 1 NOR 0
- 3 MUN 3 NOR 1
- 4 MUN 1 NOR 1
- 5 MUN 2 NOR 2
- 6 MUN 1 NOR 1
- 7 MUN 0 NOR 2
- 8 MUN 0 NOR 2
- 9 MUN 2 NOR 3
- 10 MUN 0 NOR 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Man United win 28%, 32% end level, Norwich win 40%. The line is what actually happened: Norwich by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Man United by 3+ | 2.3% |
| Man United by 2 | 6.7% |
| Man United by 1 | 19.5% |
| Draw | 31.8% |
| Norwich by 1 | 24.5% |
| Norwich by 2 | 10.2% |
| Norwich by 3+ | 5.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Man United | 11 | 1 | 0.94 | +0.06 |
 Norwich | 6 | 2 | 0.92 | +1.08 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 37' | Cameron Jerome scored from a shot | 0.43 |
| 53' | Alexander Banor Tettey scored from a shot | 0.17 |
| 65' | Anthony Martial scored from a shot | 0.22 |
When it happened
Man United’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14' | Wayne Mark Rooney didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% NOR |
| 2 | 24' | Chris Smalling didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% NOR |
| 3 | 37' | Cameron Jerome scored from a shotFinishing · 43% chance | +17% NOR |
| 4 | 53' | Alexander Banor Tettey scored from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +13% NOR |
| 5 | 59' | Wayne Mark Rooney didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +2% NOR |
| 6 | 65' | Anthony Martial scored from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +10% MUN |
| 7 | 78' | Juan Manuel Mata García didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 7% chance | +3% NOR |
| 8 | 92' | Chris Smalling didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +9% NOR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Man United 33% · draw 32% · Norwich 35%
- Final margin
- Norwich by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for Norwich
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Norwich by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Man United 28% · draw 32% · Norwich 40% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Norwich win 56% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 17 matches, 2015-16 · Man United · Norwich
More from matchday 17, 2015-16
- Newcastle 1–1 Aston Villa Dec 19, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Chelsea 3–1 Sunderland Dec 19, 2015 · replay 93% for Chelsea
- Stoke 1–2 Crystal Palace Dec 19, 2015 · replay 48% for Crystal Palace
- Southampton 0–2 Tottenham Dec 19, 2015 · replay 65% for Tottenham
- Everton 2–3 Leicester Dec 19, 2015 · replay 71% for Leicester
- West Brom 1–2 Bournemouth Dec 19, 2015 · replay 85% for Bournemouth
- Watford 3–0 Liverpool Dec 20, 2015 · replay 87% for Watford
- Swansea 0–0 West Ham Dec 20, 2015 · drawn; replay 33% draws
- Arsenal 2–1 Man City Dec 21, 2015 · replay 68% for Arsenal