Matchday 17 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 19, 2015
Chelsea 3–1 Sunderland: who deserved to win?
Chelsea beat Sunderland 3–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Chelsea win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Chelsea made the better chances: 3.1 expected goals to 1.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Chelsea | 3 | 3.15 |
 Sunderland | 1 | 1.62 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +7 Chelsea about even · −7 Sunderland
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Chelsea win 9, 1 ends level, Sunderland win 0.
- 1 CHE 2 SUN 1
- 2 CHE 2 SUN 0
- 3 CHE 4 SUN 2
- 4 CHE 3 SUN 0
- 5 CHE 6 SUN 2
- 6 CHE 5 SUN 1
- 7 CHE 6 SUN 1
- 8 CHE 6 SUN 0
- 9 CHE 9 SUN 1
- 10 CHE 3 SUN 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Chelsea win 90%, 6% end level, Sunderland win 4%. The line is what actually happened: Chelsea by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Chelsea by 3+ | 63.8% |
| Chelsea by 2 | 15.6% |
| Chelsea by 1 | 10.4% |
| Draw | 6.2% |
| Sunderland by 1 | 2.5% |
| Sunderland by 2 | 1.1% |
| Sunderland by 3+ | 0.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chelsea | 17 (1 pen) | 3 | 3.16 | −0.16 |
 Sunderland | 11 | 1 | 1.62 | −0.62 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 4' | Branislav Ivanović scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 12' | Pedro Eliezer Rodríguez Ledesma scored from a shot | 0.34 |
| 25' | Oscar dos Santos Emboaba Júnior didn’t score from a shot | 0.37 |
| 49' | Oscar dos Santos Emboaba Júnior scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 51' | Fabio Borini scored from a shot | 0.93 |
| 77' | Loïc Rémy didn’t score from a shot | 0.47 |
When it happened
Chelsea’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Branislav Ivanović scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +21% CHE |
| 2 | 12' | Pedro Eliezer Rodríguez Ledesma scored from a shotFinishing · 34% chance | +8% CHE |
| 3 | 25' | Oscar dos Santos Emboaba Júnior didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 37% chance | +2% SUN |
| 4 | 32' | Duncan Watmore didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +1% CHE |
| 5 | 34' | Diego da Silva Costa didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +1% SUN |
| 6 | 55' | Fabio Borini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +1% CHE |
| 7 | 60' | Patrick van Aanholt didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +1% CHE |
| 8 | 64' | Jermain Defoe didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +2% CHE |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Chelsea 89% · draw 7% · Sunderland 3%
- Final margin
- Chelsea by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Chelsea
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Chelsea by 1.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Chelsea 90% · draw 6% · Sunderland 4% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Chelsea win 93% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 17, 2015-16
- Newcastle 1–1 Aston Villa Dec 19, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Stoke 1–2 Crystal Palace Dec 19, 2015 · replay 48% for Crystal Palace
- Southampton 0–2 Tottenham Dec 19, 2015 · replay 65% for Tottenham
- Everton 2–3 Leicester Dec 19, 2015 · replay 71% for Leicester
- West Brom 1–2 Bournemouth Dec 19, 2015 · replay 85% for Bournemouth
- Man United 1–2 Norwich Dec 19, 2015 · replay 56% for Norwich
- Watford 3–0 Liverpool Dec 20, 2015 · replay 87% for Watford
- Swansea 0–0 West Ham Dec 20, 2015 · drawn; replay 33% draws
- Arsenal 2–1 Man City Dec 21, 2015 · replay 68% for Arsenal