Matchday 17 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 19, 2015
West Brom 1–2 Bournemouth: who deserved to win?
Bournemouth beat West Brom 2–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Bournemouth win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Bournemouth made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 0.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 West Bromwich Albion | 1 | 0.35 |
 AFC Bournemouth | 2 | 1.79 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +15 Bournemouth about even · −15 West Brom
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. West Brom win 1, 2 end level, Bournemouth win 7.
- 1 WBA 1 BOU 0
- 2 WBA 0 BOU 0
- 3 WBA 0 BOU 0
- 4 WBA 0 BOU 4
- 5 WBA 0 BOU 3
- 6 WBA 0 BOU 2
- 7 WBA 1 BOU 3
- 8 WBA 0 BOU 1
- 9 WBA 0 BOU 1
- 10 WBA 1 BOU 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
West Brom win 6%, 18% end level, Bournemouth win 76%. The line is what actually happened: Bournemouth by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| West Brom by 3+ | 0.1% |
| West Brom by 2 | 0.9% |
| West Brom by 1 | 5.0% |
| Draw | 18.0% |
| Bournemouth by 1 | 27.9% |
| Bournemouth by 2 | 22.5% |
| Bournemouth by 3+ | 25.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 West Brom | 6 | 1 | 0.35 | +0.65 |
 Bournemouth | 17 (1 pen) | 2 | 1.79 | +0.21 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 51' | Adam Smith scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 78' | Gareth McAuley scored from a shot | 0.06 |
| 86' | Charlie Daniels scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
West Brom’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43' | Glenn Murray didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% WBA |
| 2 | 44' | Matt Ritchie didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +9% WBA |
| 3 | 48' | José Salomón Rondón Giménez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% BOU |
| 4 | 51' | The game turned hereAdam Smith scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +32% BOU |
| 5 | 78' | Gareth McAuley scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +41% WBA |
| 6 | 83' | Craig Dawson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% BOU |
| 7 | 86' | Charlie Daniels scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +10% BOU |
| 8 | 91' | José Salomón Rondón Giménez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +7% BOU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
West Brom 4% · draw 16% · Bournemouth 80%
- Final margin
- Bournemouth by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for West Brom
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bournemouth by 1.3
- Replay with same day's form
- West Brom 6% · draw 18% · Bournemouth 76% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Bournemouth win 85% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 17 matches, 2015-16 · West Brom · Bournemouth
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