Matchday 17 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 19, 2015
Newcastle 1–1 Aston Villa: who deserved to win?
Newcastle and Aston Villa drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Newcastle win 6 of 10, Aston Villa 1, and 3 end level. Newcastle made the better chances: 1.1 expected goals to 0.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Newcastle United | 1 | 1.09 |
 Aston Villa | 1 | 0.38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −23 Newcastle about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Newcastle win 6, 3 end level, Aston Villa win 1.
- 1 NEW 1 AVL 0
- 2 NEW 1 AVL 0
- 3 NEW 1 AVL 0
- 4 NEW 2 AVL 0
- 5 NEW 2 AVL 0
- 6 NEW 3 AVL 0
- 7 NEW 1 AVL 1
- 8 NEW 0 AVL 0
- 9 NEW 1 AVL 1
- 10 NEW 1 AVL 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Newcastle win 58%, 31% end level, Aston Villa win 11%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Newcastle by 3+ | 9.5% |
| Newcastle by 2 | 17.6% |
| Newcastle by 1 | 31.0% |
| Draw | 30.7% |
| Aston Villa by 1 | 9.4% |
| Aston Villa by 2 | 1.6% |
| Aston Villa by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Newcastle | 8 | 1 | 1.09 | −0.09 |
 Aston Villa | 10 | 1 | 0.38 | +0.62 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 37' | Fabricio Coloccini scored from a shot | 0.15 |
| 60' | Jordan Ayew scored from a shot | 0.04 |
When it happened
Newcastle’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37' | Fabricio Coloccini scored from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +23% NEW |
| 2 | 45' | Moussa Sissoko didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +3% AVL |
| 3 | 59' | Rudy Gestede didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% NEW |
| 4 | 60' | Jordan Ayew scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +32% AVL |
| 5 | 73' | Georginio Wijnaldum didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +8% AVL |
| 6 | 82' | Aleksandar Mitrović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% AVL |
| 7 | 87' | Rudy Gestede didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +4% NEW |
| 8 | 90' | Ayoze Pérez Gutiérrez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +10% AVL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Newcastle 54% · draw 32% · Aston Villa 13%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Aston Villa
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Newcastle by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Newcastle 58% · draw 31% · Aston Villa 11% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 17, 2015-16
- Chelsea 3–1 Sunderland Dec 19, 2015 · replay 93% for Chelsea
- Stoke 1–2 Crystal Palace Dec 19, 2015 · replay 48% for Crystal Palace
- Southampton 0–2 Tottenham Dec 19, 2015 · replay 65% for Tottenham
- Everton 2–3 Leicester Dec 19, 2015 · replay 71% for Leicester
- West Brom 1–2 Bournemouth Dec 19, 2015 · replay 85% for Bournemouth
- Man United 1–2 Norwich Dec 19, 2015 · replay 56% for Norwich
- Watford 3–0 Liverpool Dec 20, 2015 · replay 87% for Watford
- Swansea 0–0 West Ham Dec 20, 2015 · drawn; replay 33% draws
- Arsenal 2–1 Man City Dec 21, 2015 · replay 68% for Arsenal