luckadjusted
Premier League Matchday 5 · 2026-27

Matchday 17 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 20, 2015

Swansea 0–0 West Ham: who deserved to win?

Swansea and West Ham drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Swansea win 5 of 10, West Ham 2, and 3 end level. Swansea made the better chances: 1.1 expected goals to 0.4.

Full time

GoalsxG
Swansea City 0 1.07
West Ham United 0 0.43

December 20, 2015 · Swansea.com Stadium · Referee: Lee Mason

Luck index −18 Swansea about even for the draw

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Swansea win 5, 3 end level, West Ham win 2.

  1. 1 SWA 2 WHU 1
  2. 2 SWA 1 WHU 0
  3. 3 SWA 1 WHU 0
  4. 4 SWA 2 WHU 0
  5. 5 SWA 3 WHU 0
  6. 6 SWA 0 WHU 0
  7. 7 SWA 0 WHU 0
  8. 8 SWA 0 WHU 0
  9. 9 SWA 0 WHU 1
  10. 10 SWA 0 WHU 1

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Swansea win 52%, 33% end level, West Ham win 15%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Swansea by 3+7.2%
Swansea by 214.9%
Swansea by 130.0%
Draw32.6%
West Ham by 112.1%
West Ham by 22.8%
West Ham by 3+0.4%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Swansea2201.07−1.07
West Ham1100.43−0.43

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

When it happened

Swansea’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Swansea was ahead in it, below while West Ham was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 8' André Ayew Pelé didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance +2% WHU
2 24' Sung-Yeung Ki didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance +2% WHU
3 60' Sung-Yeung Ki didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance +2% WHU
4 61' Sung-Yeung Ki didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance +4% WHU
5 78' Ashley Williams didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance +5% WHU
6 83' James Tomkins didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance +4% SWA
7 84' James Collins didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance +4% SWA
8 93' Jonjo Shelvey didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance +2% WHU

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Swansea 53% · draw 33% · West Ham 15%

Final margin
even
Luck in goals
0.5 for West Ham
Luck-adjusted margin
Swansea by 0.5
Replay with same day's form
Swansea 52% · draw 33% · West Ham 15% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).

All matchday 17 matches, 2015-16 · Swansea · West Ham

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