Matchday 17 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 19, 2015
Stoke 1–2 Crystal Palace: who deserved to win?
Crystal Palace beat Stoke 2–1, but the replays call it even: Crystal Palace win 4 of 10, Stoke 4, 2 end level. Stoke made the better chances: 2.5 expected goals to 1.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Stoke City | 1 | 2.51 |
 Crystal Palace | 2 | 1.95 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +52 Crystal Palace lucky · −52 Stoke
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Stoke win 4, 2 end level, Crystal Palace win 4.
- 1 STK 2 CRY 1
- 2 STK 3 CRY 2
- 3 STK 2 CRY 0
- 4 STK 4 CRY 1
- 5 STK 2 CRY 2
- 6 STK 2 CRY 2
- 7 STK 2 CRY 5
- 8 STK 3 CRY 5
- 9 STK 4 CRY 5
- 10 STK 1 CRY 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Stoke win 43%, 19% end level, Crystal Palace win 38%. The line is what actually happened: Crystal Palace by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Stoke by 3+ | 11.6% |
| Stoke by 2 | 12.7% |
| Stoke by 1 | 18.4% |
| Draw | 19.0% |
| Crystal Palace by 1 | 16.8% |
| Crystal Palace by 2 | 11.3% |
| Crystal Palace by 3+ | 10.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Stoke | 25 (1 pen) | 1 | 2.51 | −1.51 |
 Crystal Palace | 11 (1 pen) | 2 | 1.95 | +0.05 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 45' | Connor Wickham scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 56' | James McArthur didn’t score from a shot | 0.38 |
| 73' | Bojan Krkíc Pérez didn’t score from a shot | 0.44 |
| 75' | Bojan Krkíc Pérez scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 87' | Yannick Bolasie Yala didn’t score from a shot | 0.36 |
| 87' | Chung-Yong Lee scored from a shot | 0.03 |
When it happened
Stoke’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45' | Connor Wickham scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +7% CRY |
| 2 | 56' | James McArthur didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +6% STK |
| 3 | 73' | Bojan Krkíc Pérez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 44% chance | +18% CRY |
| 4 | 75' | Bojan Krkíc Pérez scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +9% STK |
| 5 | 79' | Ryan Shawcross didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +10% CRY |
| 6 | 86' | Ryan Shawcross didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +7% CRY |
| 7 | 87' | Yannick Bolasie Yala didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +17% STK |
| 8 | 87' | The game turned hereChung-Yong Lee scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +47% CRY |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Stoke 50% · draw 24% · Crystal Palace 26%
- Final margin
- Crystal Palace by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.2 for Crystal Palace
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Stoke by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Stoke 43% · draw 19% · Crystal Palace 38% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Crystal Palace win 48% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 17, 2015-16
- Newcastle 1–1 Aston Villa Dec 19, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Chelsea 3–1 Sunderland Dec 19, 2015 · replay 93% for Chelsea
- Southampton 0–2 Tottenham Dec 19, 2015 · replay 65% for Tottenham
- Everton 2–3 Leicester Dec 19, 2015 · replay 71% for Leicester
- West Brom 1–2 Bournemouth Dec 19, 2015 · replay 85% for Bournemouth
- Man United 1–2 Norwich Dec 19, 2015 · replay 56% for Norwich
- Watford 3–0 Liverpool Dec 20, 2015 · replay 87% for Watford
- Swansea 0–0 West Ham Dec 20, 2015 · drawn; replay 33% draws
- Arsenal 2–1 Man City Dec 21, 2015 · replay 68% for Arsenal