Matchday 17 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 20, 2015
Watford 3–0 Liverpool: who deserved to win?
Watford beat Liverpool 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Watford win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Watford made the better chances: 1.9 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Watford | 3 | 1.89 |
 Liverpool | 0 | 0.63 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +13 Watford about even · −13 Liverpool
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Watford win 8, 1 ends level, Liverpool win 1.
- 1 WAT 1 LIV 0
- 2 WAT 2 LIV 1
- 3 WAT 2 LIV 1
- 4 WAT 3 LIV 1
- 5 WAT 2 LIV 0
- 6 WAT 3 LIV 0
- 7 WAT 3 LIV 0
- 8 WAT 5 LIV 0
- 9 WAT 1 LIV 1
- 10 WAT 1 LIV 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Watford win 80%, 14% end level, Liverpool win 6%. The line is what actually happened: Watford by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Watford by 3+ | 34.4% |
| Watford by 2 | 23.0% |
| Watford by 1 | 22.7% |
| Draw | 14.2% |
| Liverpool by 1 | 4.6% |
| Liverpool by 2 | 0.9% |
| Liverpool by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Watford | 6 | 3 | 1.89 | +1.11 |
 Liverpool | 12 | 0 | 0.63 | −0.63 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 2' | Nathan Aké scored from a shot | 0.95 |
| 14' | Odion Jude Ighalo scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 62' | Odion Jude Ighalo didn’t score from a shot | 0.47 |
| 84' | Odion Jude Ighalo scored from a shot | 0.27 |
When it happened
Watford’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Nathan Aké scored from a shotFinishing · 95% chance | +1% WAT |
| 2 | 8' | Nathaniel Edwin Clyne didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% WAT |
| 3 | 10' | Philippe Coutinho Correia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% WAT |
| 4 | 14' | Odion Jude Ighalo scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +11% WAT |
| 5 | 45' | Adam David Lallana didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +2% WAT |
| 6 | 60' | Adam David Lallana didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% WAT |
| 7 | 62' | Odion Jude Ighalo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 47% chance | +1% LIV |
| 8 | 65' | Jordan Brian Henderson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +1% WAT |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Watford 94% · draw 5% · Liverpool 1%
- Final margin
- Watford by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.3 for Watford
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Watford by 1.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Watford 80% · draw 14% · Liverpool 6% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Watford win 87% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 17 matches, 2015-16 · Watford · Liverpool
More from matchday 17, 2015-16
- Newcastle 1–1 Aston Villa Dec 19, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Chelsea 3–1 Sunderland Dec 19, 2015 · replay 93% for Chelsea
- Stoke 1–2 Crystal Palace Dec 19, 2015 · replay 48% for Crystal Palace
- Southampton 0–2 Tottenham Dec 19, 2015 · replay 65% for Tottenham
- Everton 2–3 Leicester Dec 19, 2015 · replay 71% for Leicester
- West Brom 1–2 Bournemouth Dec 19, 2015 · replay 85% for Bournemouth
- Man United 1–2 Norwich Dec 19, 2015 · replay 56% for Norwich
- Swansea 0–0 West Ham Dec 20, 2015 · drawn; replay 33% draws
- Arsenal 2–1 Man City Dec 21, 2015 · replay 68% for Arsenal