Matchday 17 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 19, 2015
Everton 2–3 Leicester: who deserved to win?
Leicester beat Everton 3–2, and the replays lean Leicester’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Everton, 2 end level. Leicester made the better chances: 2.4 expected goals to 1.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Everton | 2 | 1.69 |
 Leicester City | 3 | 2.37 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +29 Leicester lucky · −29 Everton
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Everton win 2, 2 end level, Leicester win 6.
- 1 EVE 2 LEI 1
- 2 EVE 3 LEI 1
- 3 EVE 2 LEI 2
- 4 EVE 1 LEI 1
- 5 EVE 0 LEI 5
- 6 EVE 1 LEI 4
- 7 EVE 0 LEI 2
- 8 EVE 1 LEI 3
- 9 EVE 2 LEI 3
- 10 EVE 1 LEI 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Everton win 20%, 18% end level, Leicester win 62%. The line is what actually happened: Leicester by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Everton by 3+ | 3.3% |
| Everton by 2 | 5.2% |
| Everton by 1 | 11.1% |
| Draw | 18.5% |
| Leicester by 1 | 21.7% |
| Leicester by 2 | 17.8% |
| Leicester by 3+ | 22.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Everton | 14 | 2 | 1.69 | +0.31 |
 Leicester | 10 (2 pen) | 3 | 2.37 | +0.63 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 26' | Riyad Mahrez scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 31' | Romelu Lukaku Menama scored from a shot | 0.25 |
| 64' | Riyad Mahrez scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 68' | Shinji Okazaki scored from a shot | 0.14 |
| 88' | Kevin Mirallas scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 92' | José Leonardo Ulloa didn’t score from a shot | 0.41 |
When it happened
Everton’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 26' | Riyad Mahrez scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +6% LEI |
| 2 | 30' | Ross Barkley didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +7% LEI |
| 3 | 31' | Ross Barkley didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% LEI |
| 4 | 31' | Romelu Lukaku Menama scored from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +22% EVE |
| 5 | 36' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +5% LEI |
| 6 | 64' | Riyad Mahrez scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +8% LEI |
| 7 | 68' | Shinji Okazaki scored from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +10% LEI |
| 8 | 91' | Ross Barkley didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% LEI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Everton 21% · draw 22% · Leicester 58%
- Final margin
- Leicester by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Leicester
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Leicester by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Everton 20% · draw 18% · Leicester 62% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Leicester win 71% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 17 matches, 2015-16 · Everton · Leicester
More from matchday 17, 2015-16
- Newcastle 1–1 Aston Villa Dec 19, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
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- Southampton 0–2 Tottenham Dec 19, 2015 · replay 65% for Tottenham
- West Brom 1–2 Bournemouth Dec 19, 2015 · replay 85% for Bournemouth
- Man United 1–2 Norwich Dec 19, 2015 · replay 56% for Norwich
- Watford 3–0 Liverpool Dec 20, 2015 · replay 87% for Watford
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