Matchday 17 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 21, 2015
Arsenal 2–1 Man City: who deserved to win?
Arsenal beat Man City 2–1, and the replays lean Arsenal’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Man City, 2 end level. The chances were close to even (1.4 expected goals to 1.3).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Arsenal | 2 | 1.35 |
 Manchester City | 1 | 1.25 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +32 Arsenal lucky · −32 Man City
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Arsenal win 6, 2 end level, Man City win 2.
- 1 ARS 3 MCI 2
- 2 ARS 2 MCI 1
- 3 ARS 1 MCI 0
- 4 ARS 3 MCI 1
- 5 ARS 4 MCI 1
- 6 ARS 5 MCI 1
- 7 ARS 1 MCI 1
- 8 ARS 1 MCI 1
- 9 ARS 0 MCI 2
- 10 ARS 1 MCI 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Arsenal win 57%, 22% end level, Man City win 21%. The line is what actually happened: Arsenal by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Arsenal by 3+ | 16.9% |
| Arsenal by 2 | 16.4% |
| Arsenal by 1 | 23.5% |
| Draw | 21.7% |
| Man City by 1 | 14.1% |
| Man City by 2 | 5.4% |
| Man City by 3+ | 2.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arsenal | 8 | 2 | 1.35 | +0.65 |
 Man City | 19 | 1 | 1.25 | −0.25 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 32' | Theo Walcott scored from a shot | 0.03 |
| 45' | Olivier Giroud scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 59' | Aaron Ramsey didn’t score from a shot | 0.50 |
| 81' | Gnégnéri Yaya Touré scored from a shot | 0.04 |
| 82' | Aaron Ramsey didn’t score from a shot | 0.30 |
| 86' | Gnégnéri Yaya Touré didn’t score from a shot | 0.35 |
When it happened
Arsenal’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12' | David Josué Jiménez Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% ARS |
| 2 | 31' | Kevin De Bruyne didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +4% ARS |
| 3 | 32' | Theo Walcott scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +25% ARS |
| 4 | 45' | Olivier Giroud scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +10% ARS |
| 5 | 81' | Gnégnéri Yaya Touré scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +4% MCI |
| 6 | 83' | Wilfried Guemiand Bony didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +5% ARS |
| 7 | 85' | Wilfried Guemiand Bony didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% ARS |
| 8 | 86' | Gnégnéri Yaya Touré didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 35% chance | +17% ARS |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Arsenal 41% · draw 27% · Man City 33%
- Final margin
- Arsenal by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for Arsenal
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arsenal by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Arsenal 57% · draw 22% · Man City 21% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Arsenal win 68% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 17, 2015-16
- Newcastle 1–1 Aston Villa Dec 19, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Chelsea 3–1 Sunderland Dec 19, 2015 · replay 93% for Chelsea
- Stoke 1–2 Crystal Palace Dec 19, 2015 · replay 48% for Crystal Palace
- Southampton 0–2 Tottenham Dec 19, 2015 · replay 65% for Tottenham
- Everton 2–3 Leicester Dec 19, 2015 · replay 71% for Leicester
- West Brom 1–2 Bournemouth Dec 19, 2015 · replay 85% for Bournemouth
- Man United 1–2 Norwich Dec 19, 2015 · replay 56% for Norwich
- Watford 3–0 Liverpool Dec 20, 2015 · replay 87% for Watford
- Swansea 0–0 West Ham Dec 20, 2015 · drawn; replay 33% draws