Matchday 19 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 28, 2015
Watford 1–2 Tottenham: who deserved to win?
Tottenham beat Watford 2–1, but the replays lean toward Watford: 4 wins in 10 to Tottenham’s 2, 4 end level. Watford made the better chances: 1.1 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Watford | 1 | 1.10 |
 Tottenham Hotspur | 2 | 0.53 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +61 Tottenham very lucky · −61 Watford
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Watford win 4, 4 end level, Tottenham win 2.
- 1 WAT 1 TOT 0
- 2 WAT 1 TOT 0
- 3 WAT 2 TOT 0
- 4 WAT 2 TOT 0
- 5 WAT 1 TOT 1
- 6 WAT 0 TOT 0
- 7 WAT 0 TOT 0
- 8 WAT 1 TOT 1
- 9 WAT 0 TOT 2
- 10 WAT 0 TOT 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Watford win 44%, 35% end level, Tottenham win 21%. The line is what actually happened: Tottenham by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Watford by 3+ | 5.2% |
| Watford by 2 | 12.6% |
| Watford by 1 | 26.2% |
| Draw | 35.0% |
| Tottenham by 1 | 16.0% |
| Tottenham by 2 | 4.0% |
| Tottenham by 3+ | 1.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Watford | 9 | 1 | 1.10 | −0.10 |
 Tottenham | 9 | 2 | 0.53 | +1.47 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 16' | Erik Lamela scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 40' | Odion Jude Ighalo scored from a shot | 0.66 |
| 88' | Heung-Min Son scored from a shot | 0.15 |
When it happened
Watford’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16' | Erik Lamela scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +24% TOT |
| 2 | 24' | Odion Jude Ighalo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% TOT |
| 3 | 40' | Odion Jude Ighalo scored from a shotFinishing · 66% chance | +11% WAT |
| 4 | 57' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% WAT |
| 5 | 81' | Troy Deeney didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% TOT |
| 6 | 81' | Troy Deeney didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +5% TOT |
| 7 | 88' | The game turned hereHeung-Min Son scored from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +42% TOT |
| 8 | 92' | Troy Deeney didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% TOT |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Watford 55% · draw 29% · Tottenham 16%
- Final margin
- Tottenham by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.2 for Tottenham
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Watford by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Watford 44% · draw 35% · Tottenham 21% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Tottenham win 39% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 19 matches, 2015-16 · Watford · Tottenham
More from matchday 19, 2015-16
- Everton 3–4 Stoke Dec 28, 2015 · replay 37% for Stoke
- Norwich 2–0 Aston Villa Dec 28, 2015 · replay 62% for Norwich
- Arsenal 2–0 Bournemouth Dec 28, 2015 · replay 89% for Arsenal
- West Ham 2–1 Southampton Dec 28, 2015 · replay 51% for West Ham
- Man United 0–0 Chelsea Dec 28, 2015 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- West Brom 1–0 Newcastle Dec 28, 2015 · replay 84% for West Brom
- Crystal Palace 0–0 Swansea Dec 28, 2015 · drawn; replay 45% draws
- Leicester 0–0 Man City Dec 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Sunderland 0–1 Liverpool Dec 30, 2015 · replay 83% for Liverpool