Matchday 19 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 28, 2015
Arsenal 2–0 Bournemouth: who deserved to win?
Arsenal beat Bournemouth 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Arsenal win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Arsenal made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 0.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Arsenal | 2 | 1.75 |
 AFC Bournemouth | 0 | 0.35 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +11 Arsenal about even · −11 Bournemouth
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Arsenal win 8, 1 ends level, Bournemouth win 1.
- 1 ARS 3 BOU 2
- 2 ARS 1 BOU 0
- 3 ARS 2 BOU 0
- 4 ARS 2 BOU 0
- 5 ARS 2 BOU 0
- 6 ARS 3 BOU 0
- 7 ARS 4 BOU 0
- 8 ARS 4 BOU 0
- 9 ARS 0 BOU 0
- 10 ARS 0 BOU 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Arsenal win 83%, 13% end level, Bournemouth win 4%. The line is what actually happened: Arsenal by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Arsenal by 3+ | 34.1% |
| Arsenal by 2 | 24.3% |
| Arsenal by 1 | 24.3% |
| Draw | 13.2% |
| Bournemouth by 1 | 3.5% |
| Bournemouth by 2 | 0.5% |
| Bournemouth by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arsenal | 13 | 2 | 1.75 | +0.25 |
 Bournemouth | 10 | 0 | 0.35 | −0.35 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 26' | Gabriel Armando de Abreu scored from a shot | 0.14 |
| 33' | Per Mertesacker didn’t score from a shot | 0.54 |
| 62' | Mesut Özil scored from a shot | 0.21 |
When it happened
Arsenal’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Joshua King didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% ARS |
| 2 | 14' | Harry Arter didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% ARS |
| 3 | 26' | Gabriel Armando de Abreu scored from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +22% ARS |
| 4 | 33' | Gabriel Armando de Abreu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% BOU |
| 5 | 33' | Per Mertesacker didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 54% chance | +7% BOU |
| 6 | 34' | Theo Walcott didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +3% BOU |
| 7 | 35' | Olivier Giroud didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% BOU |
| 8 | 62' | Mesut Özil scored from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +8% ARS |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Arsenal 92% · draw 5% · Bournemouth 2%
- Final margin
- Arsenal by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Arsenal
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arsenal by 1.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Arsenal 83% · draw 13% · Bournemouth 4% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Arsenal win 89% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 19, 2015-16
- Everton 3–4 Stoke Dec 28, 2015 · replay 37% for Stoke
- Norwich 2–0 Aston Villa Dec 28, 2015 · replay 62% for Norwich
- Watford 1–2 Tottenham Dec 28, 2015 · replay 39% for Tottenham
- West Ham 2–1 Southampton Dec 28, 2015 · replay 51% for West Ham
- Man United 0–0 Chelsea Dec 28, 2015 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- West Brom 1–0 Newcastle Dec 28, 2015 · replay 84% for West Brom
- Crystal Palace 0–0 Swansea Dec 28, 2015 · drawn; replay 45% draws
- Leicester 0–0 Man City Dec 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Sunderland 0–1 Liverpool Dec 30, 2015 · replay 83% for Liverpool