Matchday 19 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 30, 2015
Sunderland 0–1 Liverpool: who deserved to win?
Liverpool beat Sunderland 1–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Liverpool win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Liverpool made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sunderland | 0 | 0.54 |
 Liverpool | 1 | 1.79 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +17 Liverpool about even · −17 Sunderland
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sunderland win 1, 2 end level, Liverpool win 7.
- 1 SUN 2 LIV 1
- 2 SUN 1 LIV 1
- 3 SUN 1 LIV 1
- 4 SUN 0 LIV 4
- 5 SUN 1 LIV 4
- 6 SUN 0 LIV 3
- 7 SUN 0 LIV 2
- 8 SUN 0 LIV 2
- 9 SUN 1 LIV 2
- 10 SUN 1 LIV 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sunderland win 8%, 18% end level, Liverpool win 74%. The line is what actually happened: Liverpool by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sunderland by 3+ | 0.3% |
| Sunderland by 2 | 1.5% |
| Sunderland by 1 | 6.5% |
| Draw | 17.6% |
| Liverpool by 1 | 26.2% |
| Liverpool by 2 | 22.9% |
| Liverpool by 3+ | 25.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sunderland | 8 | 0 | 0.54 | −0.54 |
 Liverpool | 17 | 1 | 1.79 | −0.79 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 45' | Christian Benteke Liolo scored from a shot | 0.38 |
| 91' | Christian Benteke Liolo didn’t score from a shot | 0.52 |
When it happened
Sunderland’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15' | Jermain Defoe didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% LIV |
| 2 | 25' | Dejan Lovren didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% SUN |
| 3 | 35' | Roberto Firmino Barbosa de Oliveira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% SUN |
| 4 | 39' | Adam Johnson didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 8% chance | +2% LIV |
| 5 | 42' | Jordan Brian Henderson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% SUN |
| 6 | 45' | The game turned hereChristian Benteke Liolo scored from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +20% LIV |
| 7 | 53' | Fabio Borini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% LIV |
| 8 | 77' | Duncan Watmore didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +5% LIV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sunderland 9% · draw 20% · Liverpool 71%
- Final margin
- Liverpool by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Sunderland
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Liverpool by 1.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Sunderland 8% · draw 18% · Liverpool 74% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Liverpool win 83% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 19, 2015-16
- Everton 3–4 Stoke Dec 28, 2015 · replay 37% for Stoke
- Norwich 2–0 Aston Villa Dec 28, 2015 · replay 62% for Norwich
- Watford 1–2 Tottenham Dec 28, 2015 · replay 39% for Tottenham
- Arsenal 2–0 Bournemouth Dec 28, 2015 · replay 89% for Arsenal
- West Ham 2–1 Southampton Dec 28, 2015 · replay 51% for West Ham
- Man United 0–0 Chelsea Dec 28, 2015 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- West Brom 1–0 Newcastle Dec 28, 2015 · replay 84% for West Brom
- Crystal Palace 0–0 Swansea Dec 28, 2015 · drawn; replay 45% draws
- Leicester 0–0 Man City Dec 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws