Matchday 19 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 28, 2015
Man United 0–0 Chelsea: who deserved to win?
Man United and Chelsea drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Man United win 5 of 10, Chelsea 2, and 3 end level. Man United made the better chances: 1.3 expected goals to 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Manchester United | 0 | 1.29 |
 Chelsea | 0 | 0.88 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −9 Man United about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Man United win 5, 3 end level, Chelsea win 2.
- 1 MUN 2 CHE 1
- 2 MUN 1 CHE 0
- 3 MUN 1 CHE 0
- 4 MUN 2 CHE 0
- 5 MUN 3 CHE 0
- 6 MUN 1 CHE 1
- 7 MUN 1 CHE 1
- 8 MUN 1 CHE 1
- 9 MUN 0 CHE 2
- 10 MUN 0 CHE 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Man United win 45%, 27% end level, Chelsea win 28%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Man United by 3+ | 7.7% |
| Man United by 2 | 13.4% |
| Man United by 1 | 24.1% |
| Draw | 26.9% |
| Chelsea by 1 | 18.1% |
| Chelsea by 2 | 7.6% |
| Chelsea by 3+ | 2.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Man United | 13 | 0 | 1.29 | −1.29 |
 Chelsea | 8 | 0 | 0.88 | −0.88 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 55' | Ander Herrera Agüera didn’t score from a shot | 0.71 |
When it happened
Man United’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | John Terry didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% MUN |
| 2 | 38' | Bastian Schweinsteiger didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% CHE |
| 3 | 39' | Kurt Happy Zouma didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +7% MUN |
| 4 | 47' | Pedro Eliezer Rodríguez Ledesma didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% MUN |
| 5 | 47' | César Azpilicueta Tanco didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +6% MUN |
| 6 | 55' | Ander Herrera Agüera didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 71% chance | +23% CHE |
| 7 | 61' | Nemanja Matić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +8% MUN |
| 8 | 85' | Wayne Mark Rooney didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +12% CHE |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Man United 48% · draw 29% · Chelsea 22%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Chelsea
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Man United by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Man United 45% · draw 27% · Chelsea 28% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 19, 2015-16
- Everton 3–4 Stoke Dec 28, 2015 · replay 37% for Stoke
- Norwich 2–0 Aston Villa Dec 28, 2015 · replay 62% for Norwich
- Watford 1–2 Tottenham Dec 28, 2015 · replay 39% for Tottenham
- Arsenal 2–0 Bournemouth Dec 28, 2015 · replay 89% for Arsenal
- West Ham 2–1 Southampton Dec 28, 2015 · replay 51% for West Ham
- West Brom 1–0 Newcastle Dec 28, 2015 · replay 84% for West Brom
- Crystal Palace 0–0 Swansea Dec 28, 2015 · drawn; replay 45% draws
- Leicester 0–0 Man City Dec 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Sunderland 0–1 Liverpool Dec 30, 2015 · replay 83% for Liverpool